The outlook looks challenging with an expectation of moderate economic growth. Moody’s proposes an expansion of 1.2% in 2026, only a growth of 0.5 percentage points compared to 2025, subject to the outcome of the T-MEC review and a more complex geopolitical environment.
Fitch Ratings adds that, beyond the treaty, internal factors persist that increase caution, such as reforms under discussion in judicial, labor and economic areas, with the potential to increase costs and slow down investment decisions.
The business sector clearly identifies the pending issues. The Senior Management Perspectives in Mexico 2026 study by KPMG Mexico shows that 72% of companies consider strengthening trust in the rule of law a priority. Added to this is the need for an adequate review of the T-MEC, indicated by 59% of managers, and the challenge of attracting national and foreign investment, mentioned by 53%.
Advantage without takeoff
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) explains that Mexico has benefited from nearshoring and its manufacturing integration with the United States, but this advantage has not yet triggered a solid investment cycle. The problem is not a lack of interest, but rather the uncertainty that holds back long-term decisions.
CSIS specialists, Ryan Berg and Diego Marroquín Bitar, indicate in their analysis that although Mexico reached record levels of foreign direct investment in 2025 ($41 billion in the third quarter), total investment—which includes private, public and foreign capital—fell around 10% that year.
Private investment fell nearly 2%, while public investment plummeted more than 26%. In sectors critical for growth, the contraction was even greater.
This gap explains why the country’s advantages do not translate into long-term growth. External capital arrives, but it is not accompanied by sufficient domestic investment or public spending that enables infrastructure, energy and logistics. The result is an economy integrated with North America, but with a fragile investment base.
