At the beginning of this year, annual inflation in the country continued to send signs of “stability”, however, some states showed opposite trends in their price levels.
According to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) grew 3.77% at an annual rate during the first half of January 2026.
Although this result meant breaking the streak of two fortnights with deceleration, it also represented starting from the first fortnight of July 2024 a rate below 4%, that is, it is in the range of Banco de México (Banxico), which is 3% +/- one percentage point.
However, of the 32 states of Mexico, 12 presented annual inflation above the country’s monetary policy goal, which symbolizes that the purchasing power of families in these states is lower than in the rest of the national territory.
Quintana Roo was the state with the highest inflation level, 4.90% in the first half of January of this year, achieving two consecutive months with this trend.
They were followed by Oaxaca (4.64%), Campeche (4.43%), Jalisco (4.40%), Mexico City (4.39%), Nayarit (4.28%), Aguascalientes (4.20%), San Luis Potosí (4.18%), State of Mexico (4.16%), Michoacán (4.11%), Yucatán (4.06%) and Tamaulipas (4.05 percent).
Of this subnational group, the longest streaks with inflation higher than 4% were in San Luis Potosí (10 months) and Oaxaca (5 months).
At the other pole, the states with the lowest inflation – and that remained in the range of Banxico – were Tlaxcala (2.16%), Baja California (2.22%), Baja California Sur (2.36%),
Regarding inflation in the same period last year, 14 entities accelerated. The largest increases were observed in Mexico City with 1.19 percentage points (from 3.30 to 4.39%), Oaxaca with 0.94 points (from 3.70 to 4.64%) and State of Mexico with 0.80 points (from 3.36 to 4.16 percent).
While the most pronounced reductions occurred in Baja California with -2.29 points (from 4.51 to 2.22%), Sinaloa with -1.27 points (from 3.81 to 2.54%) and Colima with -1.21 percentage points (from 4.78 to 3.57 percent).
Cautiously
For Banco Base, general inflation in Mexico has remained below 4% since the first half of July 2024, but this should be taken with caution, since this “stability” comes from low non-core inflation, while the underlying component, which is what determines the inflation trajectory in the medium and long term, does not show clear signs of slowdown.
“Contrary to the non-core component, this inflation remains high and the last time it remained below 4% was from the first half of September 2024 to the first half of May 2025. Having said all of the above, it is important to remember that non-core inflation contains the elements with the most volatile prices and a rebound in this component would lead general inflation to be above 4% again,” he points out.
He adds that to the latter are added other risks that could contribute to greater inflationary pressures in Mexico, such as the 13% increase in the minimum wage, the imposition of tariffs of up to 50% on imports from countries with which Mexico does not have a trade agreement and the additional boost in service inflation during the summer due to the soccer World Cup.
In this context, the financial group explains that Banxico has not finished the fight against inflation and the risks of a rebound remain biased upward.
“When considering an interest rate of 7.00% and that the inflation expectation for the next 12 months is 3.84%, the real ex ante rate is located at 3.04%; with this, the real ex-ante interest rate is below the upper range estimated by Banxico for the real neutral rate, between 1.8% and 3.6%, which implies that the monetary policy is neutral,” indicates Banco Base.
