Despite the poor annual performance, the end of 2025 was better than expected. In the fourth quarter, GDP advanced 0.8% compared to the immediately previous quarter, with seasonally adjusted figures, while in its annual comparison (against the fourth quarter of 2024) growth was 1.6%, which avoided an even weaker result for the year as a whole.
The fourth quarter data contrasts with the weakness observed during much of 2025, when economic activity showed marginal advances in the first two quarters and a decline in the third. The rebound at the end of the year made it possible to dispel fears of a technical recession, although it was not enough to reverse the accumulated loss of dynamism.
By sector, tertiary activities (services) grew 2.0% annually in the fourth quarter and remained the main support of the economy. Primary activities advanced 6.0%, while secondary activities, linked to industry and construction, barely grew 0.3%, reflecting the weakness of the productive system.
In its comparison against 2024, secondary activities fell 1.1%, tertiary activities advanced 1.4% and primary activities 3.7%.
The 0.7% expansion in 2025 contrasts with the growth of more than 3% observed in 2022 and 2023, and confirms that the Mexican economy has entered a phase of low structural growth. This is the worst annual performance since the drop recorded in 2020, during the crisis caused by the pandemic.
This low rate of expansion also translates into pressures on GDP per capita, which remains practically stagnant, as economic growth does not compensate for the increase in population.
According to Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, in the last 7 years, Mexico’s GDP grew 6.37%. This implies an average growth per year of 0.85%.
The 0.7% growth in 2025 was below the expectations of the Ministry of Finance, which expected 1% growth.
