The rise in the basic interest rate had a greater impact on job creation in 2025 than the tariff imposed by the United States government, Donald Trump, said this Thursday (29) the Minister of Labor and Employment, Luiz Marinho. The statement was made during the release of data from the General Register of Employed and Unemployed Persons (Caged).
“The tariff had an impact, of course, but I think the impact of interest was greater than that of the tariff. From the industry’s global point of view, the effect of interest is more damaging”, said Marinho at a press conference.
According to the minister, the effects of the American surcharge were concentrated in specific sectors of the economy and were partially mitigated by measures adopted by the government, such as the opening of new markets and support plans for affected companies. For Marinho, the Selic Rate (basic economic interest), currently at 15% per yearwould have a broader effect on investments and hiring.
“The Central Bank expected and worked to reduce the pace of growth. The problem is that this results in burning the budget to pay interest”, said Marinho, once again criticizing monetary policy and relating the slowdown in the job market to the rise in interest rates.
Marinho also stated that January 2026 presents positive preliminary numbers, but warned that maintaining high interest rates could compromise a significant part of the year.
“With high interest rates, it is natural for investors to postpone decisions”, he concluded.
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Jobs
Brazil created 1.279 million formal vacancies throughout 2025, a result 23.73% lower than that recorded in 2024, when around 1.677 million vacancies were opened. The performance is the worst since 2020, a year marked by the pandemic, when the balance was negative.
Caged data shows that the positive balance in 2025 was the result of 26.6 million admissions and 25.3 million dismissals. In December, traditionally marked by seasonal factors, the job market registered a net closing of 618 thousand vacancies, a number that, according to Marinho, is in line with the historical pattern of the month, due to the end of temporary contracts and cost adjustments by companies.
