The strong volume of interest, added to the issuance of public bonds, caused the Federal Public Debt (DPF) to rise in 2025. According to figures released this Wednesday (28) by the National Treasury, the DPF ended last year at R$8.635 trillion, an increase of 18% compared to the R$7.316 trillion recorded at the end of 2024.
Most of the increase in federal debt is justified by the incorporation of interest, which totaled R$879.9 billion last year. The rest of the increase comes from the fact that, in 2025, the Treasury issued R$439.06 billion more than it redeemed.
In December alone, the DPF rose 1.82%. Despite the increase, the debt ended 2025 within the expected limits in last year’s Annual Financing Plan (PAF), which established that the indicator should reach between R$8.5 trillion and R$8.8 trillion at the end of last year. However, the PAF was revised in September last year. The original document established that public debt could end 2025 at up to R$8.5 trillion.
The internal Public Securities Debt (in securities) (DPMFi) increased 19.26% last year, rising from R$6.967 trillion at the end of 2024 to R$8.309 trillion at the end of 2025. In December alone, the increase was 1.76%. Last month, the Treasury issued R$60.82 billion in more bonds than it redeemed, mainly in bonds linked to the Selic Rate. To this net issuance was added the appropriation of R$82.82 billion in interest.
Through the appropriation of interest, the government recognizes, month by month, the correction of interest that accrues on bonds and incorporates the value into the stock of public debt. With the Selic Rate (the economy’s basic interest rate) at 15% per year, the appropriation of interest puts pressure on government debt.
Last month, the Treasury issued R$65.37 billion in DPMFi bonds. With the low volume of fixed-rate securities maturities in December, redemptions were smaller and totaled R$4.55 billion.
Benefited by the fall of the dollar last year, the external Federal Public Debt (DPFe) fell 6.62% in 2025, going from R$349.19 billion at the end of 2024 to R$326.07
billion by the end of 2025. In December, however, the indicator rose 3.53%. The main factor was the 3.16% rise in the dollar last month, amid tensions caused by Donald Trump’s government, and the increase in currency remittances abroad before the Income Tax reform came into force.
Mattress
After two months of increases, the public debt cushion (financial reserve used in times of turbulence or strong concentration of maturities) fell in December. This reserve went from R$1.213 trillion in November to R$1.187 trillion last month. The main reason, according to the National Treasury, was the low net issuance (issuances minus redemptions) last month.
Currently, the mattress covers 7.33 months of public debt maturities. Over the next 12 months, R$1.507 trillion in federal bonds are expected to mature.
Composition
With the strong issuance of bonds adjusted by the Selic, the composition of the DPF varied as follows from November to December:
• Selic-linked securities: 48.14% to 48.25%;
• Inflation-adjusted bonds: 26.1% to 25.93%;
• Prefixed titles: 22.07% to 22.05%;
• Exchange-linked securities: 3.7% to 3.76%.
The PAF predicts that the bonds will close the year in the following intervals
• Securities linked to Selic: 48% to 52%;
• Inflation-adjusted bonds: 24% to 28%;
• Prefixed titles: 19% to 23%;
• Exchange-linked securities: 3% to 7%.
Typically, prefixed securities (with rates defined at the time of issuance) indicate more predictability for public debt, because rates are defined in advance. However, in times of instability in the financial market, issuances fall because investors ask for very high interest rates, which would compromise the government’s debt management.
In relation to securities linked to Selic (the economy’s basic interest rate), these securities are attracting the interest of buyers due to the recent increases promoted by the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). The exchange rate debt is made up of old domestic debt securities corrected in dollars and external debt.
Term
The average term of the DPF fluctuated from 4.08 years in November to 4 years in December. The Treasury only provides the estimate in years, not months. This is the average interval in which the government takes to renew (refinance) public debt. Longer deadlines indicate greater investor confidence in the government’s ability to honor its commitments.
Holders
The composition of holders of the internal Federal Public Debt was as follows:
• Financial institutions: 32.88% of stock;
• Pension funds: 22.76%;
• Investment funds: 20.79%;
• Non-residents (foreigners): 10.35%
• Other groups: 13.22%.
Despite the greater tension in the financial market in December, the participation of non-residents (foreigners) increased compared to November, when it was 10.05%. In November 2024, the percentage was 11.2% and had reached the highest level since 2018.
Through public debt, the government borrows money from investors to honor financial commitments. In exchange, it undertakes to return the resources after a few years, with some correction, which may follow the Selic rate (basic interest in the economy), inflation, the dollar or be prefixed (defined in advance).
