This reduces investment certainty and limits the potential for nearshoring.
But he recognizes that the scenario of new tariffs generates less concern than before.
The analyst stressed that this environment makes Mexico less attractive as a platform for productive relocation, even if the T-MEC does not disappear. Added to this are internal factors that complicate the outlook, such as reforms under discussion in judicial, labor and economic areas, which can increase costs and slow down investment decisions.
The term zombie T-MEC was also coined by Euroasia Group in its 2026 risk list, an agreement that remains in force formally, but that leaves companies and governments operating in an environment of chronic uncertainty.
The treaty faces its mandatory review this year, a process that would allow its validity to be extended for another 16 years. However, President Donald Trump seeks to avoid the restrictions of a new trilateral agreement, since something undefined allows him to use trade bilaterally to extract economic and political concessions from Mexico and Canada without committing to stable long-term rules.
Outlook 2026
Mexico faces a limited growth environment and fiscal pressures that continue to weigh on its macroeconomic profile, according to the analysis of Shelly Shetty, global director of sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings.
The rating agency expects the country to remain below its growth potential, in a regional context marked by a general slowdown and lower investment.
Shetty pointed out that, although Latin America shows a gradual recovery in its sovereign ratings, Mexico is among the economies with the least expected dynamism.
Regional growth would be around 2.5%, but Mexico remains in the lower part of the range, along with Bolivia, reflecting weak investment and the absence of structural reforms that boost productivity.
On the fiscal issue, Fitch observes progress in consolidation after the pandemic, although in the Mexican case relevant challenges persist. The deficit remains high and public debt continues to rise, pressured by financial support for Pemex, which continues to be a central factor in the country’s credit evaluation.
Fiscal consolidation, Shetty explained, has been largely supported by the containment of investment spending, rather than a structural increase in income.
