For the third consecutive week, the financial market reduced its expectations for inflation in 2026. According to the Focus Bulletin released this Monday (26), the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) will close the year at 4%.
Taken as a reference for the country’s official inflation, the IPCA was projected at 4.02% last week. Four weeks earlier, it was at 4.05%. For the years 2027 and 2028, the market has maintained stable projections for 12 weeks, at 3.80% for 2027; and by 3.5% for 2028.
Inflation target
Defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), the inflation target for 2026 and subsequent years is 3%, with a tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage points up or down. In other words, the lower limit is 1.5% and the upper limit is 4.5%.
In this way, all inflation projections indicated by Focus are within the targets, as was the case with the 2025 IPCAwhich was also within the government’s target, with 4.26% recorded, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
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Fees
The other indices announced by the Focus Bulletin for 2026 are stable compared to previous weeks.
In the case of the basic interest rate (Selic), the financial market maintains the 12.25% estimated for the end of 2026, a percentage calculated five consecutive weeks ago. Currently, Selic is at 15%, the highest level since July 2006 when it reached 15.25%.
For 2027, the financial market’s expectation is that the Selic will fall to 10.50%, a percentage that has been repeated in projections for 50 consecutive weeks. For 2028, expectations also remain stable, projecting that the Selic will remain at 10% at the end of the year.
Selic variations
When Copom increases the Selic, the purpose is to contain heated demand; This has an impact on prices because higher interest rates make credit more expensive and encourage savings. Therefore, higher rates can also make it difficult for the economy to expand.
Banks also consider other factors when defining the interest charged to consumers, such as risk of default, profit and administrative expenses.
When the Selic rate is reduced, the tendency is for credit to become cheaper, encouraging production and consumption, reducing control over inflation and stimulating economic activity.
GDP and dollar
Regarding the Gross Domestic Product (GDP – the sum of all goods and services produced in the country -) expectations are that the Brazilian economy will grow 1.80% in 2026, the same percentage that has been repeated for seven weeks.
For the following years, the financial market projects growth of 1.80% in 2027; and 2% in 2028.
According to the Focus Bulletin, the US dollar should close 2026 at R$5.50. This value is the same as that projected 15 weeks ago. For 2027 and 2028, prices are projected at R$5.51; and R$5.52, respectively.
