In its preliminary estimate – which is five weeks ahead of the official publication of the IGAE – the institute calculates that the tertiary activities advanced 2.9% annuallywhile the secondary activities (industry) grew 1.2% in the last month of the year, both in seasonally adjusted figures.
At a monthly rate, the IOAE anticipates an increase of 0.2% in the IGAE in December, with an advance of 0.1% in secondary activities and 0.2% in tertiary activities, which suggests an end to the year with growth, although without signs of marked acceleration in the short term.
The estimate for November was revised upwards, from a monthly contraction of 0.16% to a growth of 0.13%.
“For its part, the IOAE for December showed a monthly growth of 0.16%. If this is confirmed, in the fourth quarter the GDP showed a quarterly growth of 0.97% and an annual growth of 1.36%. Thus, throughout 2025 the GDP would have shown a growth of 0.65%,” said Banco Base, although it warned that the appropriate indicator is usually revised significantly.
In terms of level, the indicator estimates that the IGAE reached 105.9 points (base 2018=100) in December 2025, its highest record of the year. Tertiary activities stood at 108.5 points, while secondary activities reached 101.5 points, reflecting the greater relative strength of the services sector compared to industry.
