1. Economic growth: solid numbers, uneven impact
During its first full year, the US economy performed better than the market anticipated. In the third quarter of 2025, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 4.3% annualized, driven by consumption, public spending and exports, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Ramsés Gutiérrez, VP of Franklin Templeton, points out that a good part of the economic dynamism of 2025 was explained by capital investment focused on artificial intelligencean impulse that allowed us to avoid recession, but which is difficult to extrapolate to subsequent periods. That boom also helped the stock market survive the barrage of tariffs and grow 15% (S&P 500) in the Republican’s first year.
The dynamism allowed economic expansion to be sustained and dispelled, at least for now, fears of a recession.
From Valmex’s point of view, the balance of growth is positive, but points to a normalization phase.
“Economic activity has shown an orderly slowdown compared to the high rates observed in previous years, but without signs of an abrupt contraction,” says Gerónimo Ugarte Bedwell, chief economist of the firm.
In this environment, private consumption has continued to be the main support for growth, in line with a soft landing scenario, in which the economy gradually converges towards rates closer to its long-term potential.
2. Inflation and consumer confidence: data improves, concern persists
Statistically speaking, inflation stopped being an explosive problem during Trump’s first year. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) closed December 2025 with an annual increase of 2.7%, unchanged compared to November and below the 2.9% observed a year earlier.
Core inflation stood at 2.6%, confirming a gradual moderation of inflationary pressures.
However, the relief has been incomplete. Food rose 3.1% annually, above average, and housing continued to be one of the main factors behind the monthly price rebound. Furthermore, data from the University of Michigan shows that substantial uncertainty remains about the economic future, particularly around long-term prices. The Valmex expert points out that inflation has fallen, but more slowly than anticipated.
“The downward trajectory has been gradual and underlying inflation, especially in services, continues to show persistence due to rigidities in labor and housing costs,” explains Ugarte Bedwell. This environment has forced monetary policy to maintain a cautious stance, highly dependent on data.
On the other hand, the Franklin Templeton expert distinguishes between the “hard picture” and the “soft picture” of the economy. It details that although inflation is now within more manageable ranges, consumer sentiment remains deteriorated.
For example, he points out, the University of Michigan index was at levels close to 52 points in its preliminary reading in January, compared to around 72 points a year earlier, while inflation expectations, although better than in 2024, remain high compared to their historical average, explains Gutiérrez.
3. Employment and wages: job stability without improvement in real income
The labor market avoided an abrupt deterioration, but showed an evident slowdown. In 2025, 584,000 jobs will be created, well below the two million generated the previous year. In December, barely 50,000 positions were added, although the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.4%.
Valmex interprets this performance as a readjustment rather than a deterioration. “The indicators suggest a progressive normalization of the labor market; job creation has moderated, but the unemployment rate remains at historically low levels,” notes the economist. This process has reduced wage pressures without generating, for now, a severe impact on aggregate consumption.
However, the critical point remains real income. Although nominal wages continue to grow, they do not do so at a sufficient pace to offset accumulated inflation, which explains why only about 17% of Americans consider themselves better off today than a year ago. There are jobs, but the relief in the pocket remains limited.
The gradual cooling of the labor market also has a structural component. According to Ramsés Gutiérrez, the lower job creation responds, in part, to a lower dynamism of migration to the United Stateswhich has reduced the labor supply and moderated the pace of employment expansion, without yet triggering an abrupt deterioration.
4. Consumption and inequality: growth sustained by those with the highest incomes
Despite cooling employment and persistent consumer caution, spending has remained relatively solid. However, it has done so unevenly. Data from Moody’s Analytics show that by the second quarter of 2025, the 10% of households with the highest income concentrated around 49.2% of total spending, the highest level since 1989.
A report from the Dallas Federal Reserve confirms that the top 20% of the income distribution explains about 57% of total spending. This pattern helps to understand why the economy continues to grow without the majority of households perceiving a clear improvement in their financial situation.
In terms of investment, the Franklin Templeton specialist warns that the main brake on broader relocation is not the lack of incentives, but the regulatory and legal uncertaintyespecially around tariffs and potential trade retaliation.
“When legal volatility is introduced into investment, it becomes more selective: investments are made where there are subsidies or contractual security, and projects are postponed,” explains Gutiérrez.
5. Tariffs, tax revenues and legal risks: the political cost of protectionism
Trade policy was one of the pillars of Trump’s campaign and, in its first year, it resulted in a significant tariff tightening. By the end of 2025, the United States’ average effective tariff rate reached 16.8%, according to the Yale Budget Lab, the highest level since the 1930s.
In parallel, revenue from tariffs quadrupled, going from $7.3 billion in January to $27.9 billion in December.
From Valmex’s perspective, this approach has had mixed effects. On the one hand, it has strengthened the resilience of some strategic production chains; On the other hand, it has introduced additional costs and greater operational complexity for companies with global exposure.
“More than a massive return of production, what is observed is a partial reconfiguration of chains, combining local production with regionalization schemes,” explains Ugarte Bedwell.
The intensive use of tariffs also opened a legal front. The United States Supreme Court must rule this month on the legality of the use of emergency powers to unilaterally impose tariffs, a ruling that could limit the Executive’s margin just as the USMCA review approaches.
Furthermore, Gutiérrez emphasizes that the problem is not only the level of tariffs, but also their legal uncertainty. And it warns that broad and potentially litigable tariffs under the IEEPA make intermediate inputs more expensive, put pressure on margins and can slow down investment decisions.
“At the margin, the United States can push certain sectors, but not guarantee efficient relocation if the main tool is generalized tariffs,” he points out.
