Mexico City/The Cuban historian Rafael Rojas He told EFE this Monday that he sees no “signs or evidence” of a United States military operation in Cuba like the one that culminated in the capture of the Venezuelan president on January 3. Nicolas Maduro. Instead, he believes that Washington seems to be betting on “pressure” on Havana through “collateral effects,” such as the end of the oil shipments from Caracas to the island.
“I don’t see signs or evidence that the United States is thinking about a military operation against Venezuela in Cuba. Everything seems to indicate that the United States is betting on the pressure that can be exerted by the collateral effects of the operation in Venezuela,” said Rojas, professor at the Center for Historical Studies of the College of Mexico and renowned historian – and brother of the former Cuban Vice Minister of Culture. Fernando Rojas– in an EFE conversation at his home in Mexico City.
At the same time, he noted, “the United States is making negotiation offers, which do not seem to be well received by the Cuban side.”
The expert in intellectual and political history of Latin America, who has been exiled in Mexico for several decades, pointed out that two elements currently overlap in Havana: the “mourning” for the 32 Cubans who died in Washington’s military attack on Venezuela and the “tense way” in which Chavista allies are processing Maduro’s capture.
“Of course there is a change in Delcy Rodríguez’s style of government, and that change is also reflected between the new Venezuela and Cuba”
On the one hand, Rojas assured that “there is a reading in favor of the thesis of betrayal”, when comparing it with other processes of Bolivarian leaders that have been succeeded by other regimes where the new ruler abandons the Bolivian line, as was the case of Ecuador with Lenín Moreno (2017-2021) after Rafael Correa (2007-2017).
“Others see it as an inevitable transaction, as a tactical retreat, to negotiate with US President Donald Trump,” explained the author of Tombs without peace. Revolution, dissidence and exile of the Cuban intellectual (2006), Anagrama Essay Award.
“But of course there is a change in Delcy Rodríguez’s style of government: it is not the type of confrontational government of Maduro with the United States, and that change is also reflected between the new Venezuela and Cuba. The statements from Caracas that refer to Cuba are tremendously cold, the tone of anti-imperialism is lowered,” added the author.
In this sense, he noted that “what has happened in recent days shows that the negotiation is still ongoing. And the current Venezuelan Government is taking measures that respond to demands such as the release of political prisoners and the offer of up to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States.”
In this context, Rojas, a graduate in Philosophy at the University of Havana, stressed that it is important to analyze the attitude in the region of the traditional international allies of the Bolivarian governments, such as Russia and China, in response to the military intervention in Venezuela and the arrest of Maduro, who is detained in New York awaiting trial for several drug trafficking crimes.
“Evidently, there was a withdrawal of China and Russia since before the January 3 operation, especially at the end of 2025 when the US begins attacks against ships in the Caribbean and the Pacific. Now we understand the matter a little better. China was focusing on the tension with Taiwan and Russia remained focused on its invasion of Ukraine but also viewing with sympathy the threats of annexation of Greenland by the US,” he stressed.
The Cuban Government has described the US military attack on Caracas as “unacceptable and barbaric” and has insisted on reiterating its “support and solidarity with the Venezuelan people and government” in addition to demanding the release of Maduro.
Havana and Caracas have been close allies politically and economically, and since 2000 they have maintained an agreement by which the Island has received Venezuelan crude oil, in exchange for the provision of professional services, mainly doctors, teachers, but also, profusely, military personnel, as demonstrated by the Cuban deadwhich were part of Maduro’s protection, recognized by the regime.
