There is the potential for a “market correction” if expectations for AI gains, productivity and profitability are not realized.
A major catalyst for recent stock market records on Wall Street has been, precisely, the bullish sentiment around artificial intelligence.
Divergence
The IMF estimates that the rebound in technology investment and spending added about 0.3 percentage points to average annualized US GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025.
This offset the burden of the prolonged government shutdown at the end of the year due to a budget disagreement in Congress.
Gourinchas highlighted the divergence between the United States — which is experiencing a jump in AI investment — and other advanced economies.
The IMF estimates US growth at 2.4% by 2026, 0.3 percentage points higher than forecast in October.
In contrast, it forecasts growth of 1.3% in the euro zone.
Growth in China and India is also “relatively strong” compared to other emerging markets, Gourinchas said.
Looking ahead, Gourinchas stressed the need for the independence of central banks, so that they can fulfill their mandate of keeping inflation at bay.
While he did not comment on an ongoing US Justice Department investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, he noted that the US dollar’s relevance to the international monetary system means it is “even more important” that the Fed can do its job and do it well.
