The cycle of collective bargaining 2026 is taking place in a high-tension environment, marked by an unusual combination of economic, legal and political factors that reconfigure the relationship between companies and workers, warned Oscar de la Vega, partner at D&M Abogados.
According to the labor law specialist, the convergence between moderate inflation in official statistics and a persistent increase in the cost of basic consumption has widened the gap between workers’ salary expectations and companies’ financial planning. “Companies budget based on general inflation, but workers negotiate based on the inflation they experience every day in the supermarket,” he explained.
According to the latest data from INEGI, general inflation closed 2025 at 3.69%, a level that has served as a reference for salary increases. However, De la Vega stressed that this figure is insufficient to contain labor unrest, since the prices of food, transportation and essential services have registered higher increases, putting pressure on the real income of workers.
This economic tension adds a structural change to the collective bargaining modelsince the reform in terms of union democracy, collective contracts and their revisions must be legitimized through the personal, free, direct and secret vote of the workers, which has significantly increased the risk of rejection of the agreements.
“The decision-making power passed directly to the worker base. Today it is not enough for the union and the company to reach an agreement; that agreement has to convince the workers that there is a real benefit,” said the partner of D&M Abogados. In this context, increases aligned solely with official inflation face a high probability of not being validated.
In union organizations of all currents, it is already being questioned in an important way. the existence of the figure of the Independent Recovery Amount (MIR) which is used to set the increase in minimum wages, since this is affecting the salary recovery of workers with collective contracts.
Alejandro Avilés, STUNAM lawyer and member of the workers’ sector at Conasami, said that “the MIR was created with the purpose of gradually recovering the purchasing power of the minimum wage lost for decades; but it must be definitively eliminated by 2026. The mechanism has already met its objective and maintaining it would only artificially prolong an instrument that, in addition, generates distortions in collective bargaining.”
The international environment adds an additional element of caution. De la Vega pointed out that the uncertainty surrounding a possible renegotiation of the T-MEC has caused a pause in some private investment decisions, particularly in sectors linked to exports and regional supply chains. “This caution translates into less room for aggressive salary commitments,” he said.
The combination of restrictive business budgets and workers with greater decision-making power anticipates an increase in labor conflict during 2026. According to the labor lawyer, strike calls could increase and contractual review processes could be prolonged, especially in industries with large workforces and rigid salary structures.
Faced with this scenario, the negotiating tables are forced to explore broader solutions than the direct percentage adjustment to the salary. “We are seeing schemes that incorporate bonuses, income support, improvements in benefits or staggered reviews, as a way to address the pressure of the cost of living without compromising the financial viability of companies,” he explained.
