The prices of oil They recovered slightly this Friday after the fall of the previous day, with traders closely monitoring the evolution of the situation in Iran, a major global crude oil producer.
Choked by a violent repression that left thousands dead, according to experts and NGOs, the wave of protests in Iran, which began at the end of December, appears to have lost momentum in recent days.
What is happening in the Asian country is “the determining factor of prices in the oil market,” said Barbara Lambrecht, of Commerzbank.
The price of North Sea Brent crude oil, for delivery in March, rose 0.58% on Friday, to $64.13 per barrel.
Its US equivalent, West Texas Intermediate, for delivery in February, advanced 0.42%, to $59.44 per barrel.
“Following the latest statements by US President (Donald) Trump, the risk of (immediate) US intervention has been revised downwards,” Lambrecht said.
Trump thanked Tehran this Friday for canceling “all planned hangings” of protesters.
“However, the risk of an escalation of the situation remains,” Lambrecht noted, preventing an excessive fall in prices.
With Iranian crude oil subject to sanctions, “disruptions to Iranian supplies do not have a direct impact on global benchmarks,” according to analysts at Oxford Economics.
But a significant loss of Iranian barrels, they maintain, cannot be compensated indefinitely in the parallel market and would “increase demand” in the traditional market, and drive prices up.
Regarding supply, production by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) fell in December to 42.83 million barrels per day, which moderated to some extent expectations of oversupply.
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