According to the most recent data from Consar, the capital gains either Afore returns in 2025 reached 1 trillion 141,766 million pesoswhich represents more than double what was registered in 2024 and a historical record for him Retirement Savings System. Behind this result there was a year of high volatility, warns Andrés Moreno, Investment Director of Afore Sura.
“There is always blood, sweat and tears behind these good results. 2025 looked to be a very complex year,” he explains. At the end of 2024, the markets had priced in a favorable scenario after Donald Trump’s victory, but the first quarter of 2025 was marked by trade shocks and fears of a global recession.
The turn came in the middle of the year, after episodes of correction in the markets, expectations changed from a possible recession to a narrative of accelerated technological transformation, driven by Artificial Intelligence.
“We went from thinking about an imminent recession to a completely different horizon, where AI began to dominate growth and profitability expectations,” says Moreno. In this context, several international stock markets closed the year with increases close to or greater than 30%.
Added to this environment was the behavior of the debt markets. During 2025, the cycle of lower rates in Mexico boosted the value of the bonds in the portfolio, in the field of fixed income.
“The decrease in rates caused fixed income instruments to rise in value, and that was another important component of the portfolio returns,” explains Sura’s investment director. For the pension system, the combination of variable income and fixed income was key to achieving record levels of capital gains.
What does this mean for the worker?
The record figures do not remain in the Afores, but are reflected directly in the individual accounts. Moreno emphasizes that the returns belong entirely to the savers.
“If a worker had 10,000 pesos in his account, today he can have 12,000. All that performance is theirs, not the Afore,” he says.
In the case of Sura Afore, the portfolios recorded returns close to 18% in 2025, with notable positions within generational funds. According to the specialist, this performance strengthens accumulated savings and improves pension prospects, especially for those who maintain a long-term vision.
2026 more challenging, but without handicaps on the radar
Going forward, the scenario looks more challenging. The renegotiation of the T-MEC, global trade uncertainty and the economic slowdown in Mexico could increase volatility. Even so, Moreno rules out a scenario of widespread losses.
“We do not anticipate losses. It is going to be a complex year, especially for Mexico, but there are tools to protect assets and look for opportunities in other markets,” he points out.
The strategy, he explains, will continue to be supported by global diversification and major macrotrends. “Artificial Intelligence is one of them (…) another is geopolitics, which is reflected in commodities, currencies and other assets. These trends are increasingly important in asset allocation,” he adds.
For workers, the historic capital gains of 2025 were not a stroke of luck, but the result of a long-term strategy in an exceptional year. Well, it is worth remembering that 2025 was an exceptional year for the stock markets, where the Afores also invest.
In the United States, for example, the Nasdaq 100 accumulated a return of 21%, the Mexican Stock Exchange had an accumulated return of almost 30% and the Asian stock markets shone, with the Korean KOSPI index exceeding 75% annual return. In this sense, although various fund managers expect a moderation in returns, an abrupt correction is not anticipated in the short term.
