“The United States does not need the USMCA,” Donald Trump said yesterday, January 13, “we do not need cars made in Canada. We do not need cars made in Mexico. We want them made here.” How to interpret this statement? Let’s put aside the argument that Trump is indecipherable and try to make sense of a message that was broadcast at a Ford auto plant in Michigan.
In Canada they think it is a response to the winks that its Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is making to China to sell them oil, after the closure of Venezuelan supplies. In Mexico, a possible link is being sought with the Monday morning call with President Sheinbaum. The American media emphasizes that this is a speech that seeks to counteract fears related to a weakening of the labor market, derived from poor job creation data. Along the way, he takes the opportunity to reinforce his narrative of the industrial renaissance of the United States: “American automakers are doing very well,” Trump said at the plant where the F-150 pick-up trucks are manufactured.
The American president spoke on many topics and his reference to the trade agreement was a very brief part of his speech. He spent much more time on inflation, which is something that continues to undermine his popularity. In this he said many things that are false or exaggerated, for example that “prices are going down.”
He dedicated very few words to the T-MEC, but they are enough to set off alarm bells in Mexico and Canada. Quite rightly so. We are immersed in the review-renegotiation process of the agreement. At the end of last year, public consultations were held in all three countries. In the second half of January, there will be meetings of the technical teams. Throughout the first semester, you will travel a path that will be winding, full of potholes and with poor signage.
By July, a formal decision on the future of the trade agreement must be made. Either it is allowed to expire or it is replaced by another treaty…or by nothing. In this regard, a report from the United States Congress that was released this week is relevant. It says it’s unclear how any changes resulting from the review will be processed. In the case of the US, for example, it is not well defined what part corresponds to Congress and what role the Executive would play. The Court could intervene to resolve it or finish complicating it.
Is it true that the United States does not need the T-MEC? In Mexico this phrase resonated strongly. We may think that it is part of Trump’s negotiating strategy, but we must also assume that there is a possibility that the president thinks so. If this were the case, it means that there is an enormous task to be done in the binational dialogue. In addition to explaining why it is not a good idea to carry out military or police operations in Mexican territory, there will be the challenge of making him recognize the value of the USMCA and the economic-commercial relationship.
Will Trump be convinced that the United States needs Mexico and Canada to compete with China? Maybe so, but you may not be convinced that the USMCA is the best way to integrate Mexico and Canada into that economic competition/war. There are aspects in which it has come to the conclusion that the trade agreement is not enough and the partners require other “incentives.” For this reason, he mixes security and migration issues with trade negotiations and threatens tariffs.
Does the United States need the USMCA to maintain its privileged access to the Mexican market and protect US investments in Mexican territory? At another time in his life Donald Trump worked a lot with lawyers. Now, he seems convinced that there is no document that is more persuasive than a missile or a fighter plane. Mexico is part of its area of influence and has become the main market for United States exports. In 2025, we will buy 28 billion dollars a month, almost 1 billion a day. Nobody buys more food or petroleum products from the United States. Meat, cheese, corn, gasoline, diesel.
Are we ready for the second season of Trump 2.0? Have you seen that 2026 brings more action and more prison scenes?
