Preliminary numbers from the economic team indicate that the Central Government ended 2025 with a primary deficit of around 0.1% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, sum of goods and services produced in the country), Finance Minister Fernando Haddad reported this Tuesday (13). The result is within the tolerance margin of the fiscal target for the year, which foresees zero deficit, with a limit of up to 0.25% of GDP.
“For the third consecutive year, we are meeting the target of [déficit] primary. The number is preliminary, but we should have ended the year with a 0.1% deficit”, said Haddad in a conversation with journalists at the Ministry of Finance.
According to the rules of the fiscal framework, in force since 2023, the primary result, which are revenues and expenses, without interest on public debt, can vary within the tolerance band by up to 0.25 percentage points of GDP without characterizing non-compliance with the target.
Precatório
Haddad explained that the 0.1% percentage only takes into account expenses included in regular tax accounting. When expenses authorized by court decisions and Congress are incorporated, such as court orders and compensation for retirees from the National Social Security Institute (INSS), the deficit rises.
“If we consider the exceptions approved by Congress and court decisions, we are talking about something around 0.17% deficit. With the court orders, we will close the year at 0.48%,” he said.
According to the minister, the inclusion of these values represents greater fiscal transparency and corrects distortions inherited from previous years, when part of these expenses were excluded from the target calculation.
Public debt and interest
Haddad also commented on projections released this week by the National Treasury, which point to a worsening in the public debt trajectory, with the possibility of debt reaching 95.4% of GDP in 10 years, if there are no new measures to increase revenue.
According to the minister, the main factor putting pressure on the debt is not the primary result, but the high level of real interest rates in the country.
“Today, what most affects the public debt is the real interest, more than the primary result. The primary is being fulfilled consistently, and we will continue in this way”, he said.
Official data on the 2025 fiscal result will still be released by the National Treasury and the Central Bank at the end of January. Until then, the numbers presented by the minister are initial estimates.
