Licensing of cars and light commercial vehicles, such as pickup trucks and vans, is expected to grow by around 3% this year, with the sale of more than 2.6 million units, projects the National Federation of Motor Vehicle Distribution (Fenabrave).
Last year, the sale of new cars and commercial vehicles had a positive performance, with an increase of 2.58% compared to the previous year, with 2.5 million units sold.
When the expected results for the truck and bus segments are added together, the expectation for this year is growth of 3.02%, with almost 2.8 million units sold. Last year, all these segments combined – automobiles, light vehicles, buses and trucks – grew 2.08%, with the licensing of 2.7 million units.
However, this sector could be growing even more, assesses Tereza Fernandez, economist at Fenabrave.
“We are far from reaching the peak of 2011 [quando foram vendidas 3,4 milhões de unidades de automóveis e comerciais leves e 3,6 milhões de unidades englobando caminhões e ônibus]. But macroeconomic conditions are preventing us from growing further. We have a very high level of family debt and interest rates are not expected to fall at the expected speed. So all of this is an impediment for you to have greater growth in the sector”, he explained.
Added segments
For the entire sector, which would encompass the combined segments (cars, light commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, motorcycles, road equipment and other vehicles), the federation projects growth of 6.10% for this year, driven mainly by the motorcycle segment, whose growth is expected to be around 10%.
Last year, all segments combined closed with an increase of 8%, with 5.1 million units registered.
The truck segment, which performed well in 2025 due to credit difficulties and the indebtedness of companies in the agricultural sector, is expected to grow by around 3%. However, the Fenabrave economist recalled, this growth will occur on a negative basis, since the truck segment closed 2025 with a drop of 8.65%.
“It was very good government program announced this year [o Move Brasil, que oferece crédito para a compra de caminhões] because this will help to not be a negative number [de crescimento] and for us to have a positive performance in the segment this year”, said the economist.
But this performance, assesses Tereza Fernandez, could be even greater if it weren’t for the country’s macroeconomic problems. “Sustainable growth in Brazil is difficult to obtain because, due to the inflationary risk, interest rates are being held back”, he analyzes.
Tereza Fernandez adds that it is not possible to effectively resolve this issue due to the fiscal risk.
“Without this, perhaps we would have performed a little better. We are growing [estimado] of 3.5% for trucks this year. It could be 5% or 6%. There is space for this and need, given that 65% of everything I produce, I load in a truck.”
