We must consider that winter is the season when fuel prices rise the most, last week it reached 79 dollars, and what goes from January to August has averaged about 62 dollars per barrel, explained Tonatiuh Vázquez Pérez, coordinator of Energy Transition and Public Finance of the Center for Economic and Budgetary Research (CIEP).
At least due to the winter effect, which continues in the first months of the following year, extraordinary revenues are expected for the public sector from oil exports higher than those programmed and recently approved in Congress, the specialist estimated.
How can surplus income be used?
If the average price closes above 55 dollars, the Treasury may have additional income and use more resources for needs such as education and health, since there are rules for the distribution of this income: “I consider that the authority is being cautious about the context that is still very uncertain and volatile for the price of crude oil; These are uncertain times, ”said Arturo Carranza, Director of Energy Projects, at AKZA Advisory.
According to the Economic Criteria of the Economic Package 2022, each dollar difference in the export price of crude oil per barrel would give the public sector an extra 13,588 million pesos (mdp). The differences between the estimates for a barrel of the Mexican mixture by specialists and the estimates by the Treasury range from $ 7 to $ 12.8.
ISR without taking off
The Law establishes that when you have extraordinary income in an area, they must go to other sectors with missing income. “For next year we see it difficult, for example, to meet the income goal for the collection of ISR,” said Mariana Campos, coordinator of the Public Expenditure and Accountability Program of México Evalúa.
The collection of income tax depends largely on the growth of the economy, which will have less dynamism next year; Plans that the Treasury will implement, such as the trust regime, to increase collection will have results in the medium term, in addition to the fact that there are already a good number of companies that have already been brought up to date with the tax authority for previous years, he added. the specialist.
From January to September of this year, the SAT has collected 43,047 million pesos less than what was programmed for that same period. For the following year, the Treasury expects to collect 2.7 billion pesos for income tax.
Stabilization funds
Tamón Takahashi, general director of the TKA Analytica research center, explained that once the surplus income covers the shortfall in other areas, and there are still resources, these will have to be transferred to the financial stabilization funds.
These two funds are the Budgetary Income Stabilization Fund (FEIP) and the Federal Entities Income Stabilization Fund (FEIEF), which have been used in 2019 and 2020 in the absence of income to the coffers public in relation to the programmed.
At the end of September of this year, the FEIP had 15,260 million pesos and the FEIEF had 29,574 million pesos. At the end of 2018 they had 246,690 million pesos and 76,348 million pesos, respectively.
