It was difficult to choose a more symbolic image: hours before being in the power of the United StatesNicolás Maduro received Liu Xiaoqi, China’s special envoy to Latin America, at the Miraflores Palace.
Until now, China was the main buyer of Venezuelan oil. For months, both governments had identified themselves as “fool-proof strategic partners,” but months ago, it was also visible that the alliance did not reach common defense.
Trump has taken an interest in the Western Hemisphere, after decades of his predecessors distancing themselves. It puts its new National Security Strategy into practice. It has managed to sow obstacles to China through trade (Mexico), pressure (Panama) and force (Venezuela).
Based on the Monroe Doctrine, says the so-called “Trump Corollary”the United States will reestablish its “preeminence” in the Western Hemisphere to protect “our access to key geographic areas throughout the region” and “we will deny non-hemispheric competitors the option to locate forces or other threatening capabilities or take strategic control of vital assets in our hemisphere.”
The most immediately notable consequence is that the world observes, without the ability to react, the return of threats in international relations, the illegal use of force and direct intervention in a country to change the regime.
If a new division of the world begins in this way, will China feel better placed to attack Taiwan? Will Russia understand that Ukraine is the bargaining chip?
Unlike precedents in Latin America, there is no internal military coup or invasion, but rather a formula that Trump outlined in his message this Saturday: “cooperation” with the remains of Madurism, not military occupation and “direction” from Washington.
He reported that there was some resistance and combat, apparently in a shelter inside Fort Tiuna, the military stronghold in western Caracas. The head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General John Dan Caine, confirmed what was evident since the incursion this morning became known: that the United States had copious intelligence collection, down to the millimeter, from Maduro’s entourage.
There are signs, then, that at the top of Madurismo there has been some collaboration with the invaders.
Trump abandons large-scale occupation. For such an adventure there is resistance in the military leadership and in MAGA ultranationalism in the United States.
There is also the size of the Venezuelan territory, the structure of a power with a strong military component and the highly armed and violent areas on the border with Colombia and the mineral smuggling routes in the south and east, with pockets of local power that have a lot to defend.
For now, Trump has a trump card to show and exploit within his country. Towards the outside it has a deterrent factor: negotiating in extreme conditions.
*This article was originally published in The Day. It is reproduced with the express authorization of its author.
