The surprising recognition by Israel of the separatist region of Somaliland It offers the Jewish state unprecedented access to the Red Sea and a platform to attack Yemen’s Houthis, allies of Iran.
The measure could help Israel militarily against the so-called Tehran’s axis of resistance in the Middle Eastbut it also turns the Horn of Africa into a new battlefield, according to experts.
Israel’s announcement to recognize Somaliland as an “independent and sovereign state” was a first for the self-proclaimed republic that separated from Somalia in 1991.
Somaliland has a high geostrategic importance. It offers direct access to the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the busiest commercial shipping routes in the world, connecting the Indian Ocean with the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
It is also very close to Yemen’s Houthi rebelsbacked by Iran, which have repeatedly attacked Israel since the start of the Gaza war triggered by the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023.
The Israeli recognition came after talks held “with the utmost secrecy, with the participation of Mossad in a paradiplomatic role,” said David Khalfa, a researcher at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation in Paris.
If Israel were to obtain permission to deploy in Somaliland territoryits military could operate surveillance planes and drones to “monitor and attack the Houthis,” Khalfa said.
“The possibility of operating from Somaliland territory could be a game-changer,” said Asher Lubotzky of the Institute for Israeli-African Relations in Herzliya, near Tel Aviv.
Such access would be beneficial “since the Gulf States, the United States and Israel have fought the Houthis in recent years without significant results,” he added.
“Counteralliances” against Iran
Given its strategic location, Somaliland has long attracted western interest.
Previously under the influence of the Ottoman Empire, it became british protectorate at the end of the 19th century. This lasted until 1960, when it joined the Republic of Somalia.
The United States later contemplated establishing a military base there in the 1980s.
In 1991, Somaliland unilaterally declared its independence from the rest of Somalia.
More than two years after the Hamas attack on October 7, Israel wants to build “counter-alliances” against Iran along the coasts of a pro-Western and politically stable Somaliland. That’s “a rare asset in this part of the world,” Khalfa said.
For security expert Samira Gaid, of the Somali think tank Baqiis Insight in Mogadishu, recognition by Israel “reinforces concerns that the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are becoming militarized political spaces rather than neutral trade corridors.”
It also accelerates “the involvement, over the last decade, of the Horn of Africa in the Middle Eastern rivalries“he noted.
Rivalry with Türkiye
The Somaliland alliance with countries in the region is not new.
The United Arab Emirates They operate a military base in the region’s Berbera port under an agreement dating back to 2017. Some sources say Israel’s ally Abu Dhabi could facilitate Israel’s access to the facility, Khalfa said.
Last year, Somaliland also entered into negotiations with Ethiopia, a landlocked country and ally of Israel, to build a port on its coast.
The recognition of that republic “seems to fit well with the Israel alliances“said Colin Clarke, research director at the Soufan Center in New York.
“The Horn of Africa, like other regions of the continent, has become a battlefield between the so-called ‘middle powers’,” he noted.
Analysts also note that Israel’s new alliance further fuels its growing rivalry with Türkiye.
Both countries have been at odds in their attempt to expand their influence over Syria. In addition, Ankara aims to send troops to the Gaza Strip within the framework of an international stabilization force led by the United States.
Israel has categorically rejected that possibility, highlighting Türkiye’s ties to the Islamist group Hamas.
Türkiye has long had a presence in the Horn of Africa and considers Somalia almost a “satellite country,” Lubotzky said.
The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoganattacked diplomatic recognition on Tuesday, which he considered “illegitimate and unacceptable.”
