The peruvian economy It began 2025 with growth expectations of 3% and even lower figures for the most prudent analysts. However, as of October, the last data available for the year, GDP has reached an interannual rate of 3.7%, which forced all forecasts to be revised upwards. All this occurs despite the fact that the insecurity crisis strained the political scene, leading to the dismissal of Dina Boluarte and leading Peru to add its seventh president in just nine years.
The Central Reserve Bank (BCR), BBVA Research, the Economic Studies Area of BCP and Scotiabank, as well as the IPE, increased their growth projections.
For experts, several factors influenced these results, among which the improvement in business confidence stands out. According to data from the BCR, businessmen’s expectations about the economy and their sector remained optimistic throughout the year with indicators that registered increases every month.
For economist Juan Carlos Odar, the 2025 data have generated a “surprise” in which the role of private investment, which has a greater dynamic than expected, has been important (see box on page 3).
“What is difficult to achieve is to advance in a sustained manner around 3.5% and that involves wanting to achieve a higher rate of potential growth,” he commented, and pointed out that it is necessary to achieve an improvement in productivity, institutions and the environment in which business is done.
Rising sectors
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI), between January and October of this year, the Peruvian economy grew 3.36%. During that period, the only sector that recorded a negative result was telecommunications and other information services with a drop of 0.3%.
The outlook for fishing is different, which is the fastest growing sector, with 6.34%. The good performance has been driven by the greater capture of species intended for direct human consumption.
Mining and hydrocarbons, for its part, registered an advance of 2.68% so far this year. One of the advantages that this sector has had is the bonanza in international metal prices.
According to the BCR, the terms of trade, which measure the evolution of the prices of the goods we export and import, will end the year with a growth rate of 17%, due to the increase in the prices of the main export commodities, such as copper, gold, zinc and coffee.
During the year, the international price of silver has doubled and that of gold has increased by more than 60%.
The negative is that no significant project in the mining portfolio, whose investment exceeds US$60,000 million, came into operation.
Meanwhile, manufacturing so far has an increase of 1.47%. In October alone, this item showed an advance of 3.06% due to the better performance of the manufacturing subsector in the processing and preservation of fish, crustaceans and mollusks, among others.
Odar also highlighted the good result of construction (5.47% between January and October), favored mainly by the expansion of private investment.
Record shipments
Without a doubt, in the first half of this year we owe part of the tensions to the president of the United States, Donald Trump. The announcement of the tariffs marked a period of concern, taking into account that said country is one of Peru’s main trading partners.
However, although there are sectors that have been affected, such as jewelry, the truth is that Peruvian exports have continued to grow. What’s more, the BCR estimates that this year sales abroad will reach US$90,647 million, which would exceed the US$76,394 million in 2024. If these data are even given, the economy will be positioned as the fourth country with the largest shipments in the region, after surpassing Argentina.
Furthermore, expectations are placed on new trade agreements and the possibility of expanding the presence of non-traditional products in China, thanks to the impact of the Port of Chancay.
It must also be taken into account that although foreign trade has been favored by international prices, non-traditional shipments are also showing dynamism and in 10 months they already total US$18,725 million, which means an increase of 16.3% when compared to the same period last year.
Elections and Populism
When the year began, one of the concerns for 2025 was the start of the electoral campaign and its impact on the projections, taking into account the number of candidates who would run for office.
However, the president of the BCR, Julio Velarde, clarified last Friday that so far this is not reflected.
Along the same lines, the manager of Economic Studies at BCP, Carlos Prieto, assured that the international environment is very favorable for Peru, which is why the figures are on the right track.
It must be noted that something that marked the economy this year was the political populism that generated the approval of initiatives such as the eighth withdrawal of the AFP, the withdrawal of 100% of the CTS until 2026. To this we must add that the Fiscal Council also warned that between 2021 and 2026, 229 laws with fiscal impact were approved, the cumulative cost of which amounted to S/36,000 million.
We were able to grow more
However, the consensus among economists is that the country could have grown much more. Carlos Prieto, manager of Economic Studies at BCP, pointed to institutional deterioration as one of the main brakes. He recalled that the bailouts to Petroperú and the disbursements linked to the Talara Refinery have meant an expense of more than US$10,000 million.
“There is an enormous lost opportunity cost,” he said, pointing out that, with a favorable international environment, Peru could have grown around 6.5%, which would have allowed poverty to be reduced and the middle class to expand.
Prieto also questioned policies such as withdrawals of pension funds and the lack of fiscal discipline. “Peru should be saving because, just as there are times of good times, there are periods of lean times,” he warned.
Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook combines still solid macroeconomic fundamentals with greater domestic uncertainty and a less dynamic international environment.
In an election year, analysts anticipate a moderation in growth, waiting for clearer signals about the country’s political and economic direction. According to analysts, the Peruvian economy would grow between 3.1% and 3.4% at the end of 2025, while for 2026 the projections are in a range of 2.7% to 3%.
Private investment
Private investment maintained double-digit growth in 2025, driven mainly by the good performance of non-residential investment, in a context marked by favorable international prices and the execution of large projects. According to the Central Reserve Bank (BCR), private investment grew 11.4% in the third quarter of the year, thanks to the boost from the mining and infrastructure sector.
The BCR detailed that non-residential mining investment rebounded due to higher disbursements in equipment, development, preparation and exploration. Added to this was the progress of infrastructure projects, which was reflected in double-digit growth in imports of capital goods, such as cargo vehicles, machinery and industrial equipment.
David Tuesta, former Minister of Economy and Finance, highlighted that all components of private investment show positive rates. He specified that residential investment is growing around 2% to 2.5% after having been negative the previous year, while non-residential, non-mining investment is advancing between 4% and 5%.
However, Tuesta stressed that the greatest boost comes from mining investment, associated with projects that were consolidated this year for about US$3,000 million, such as Quellaveco. He argued that growth responds more to the commodity cycle than to structural improvements in productivity.
“The trap of the heavy backpack”, by Víctor Fuentes
The Peruvian economy today is an athlete with Olympic potential trying to run a marathon with a backpack full of stones. The engine is the private investmentwhich would grow 10% in 2025, its greatest advance since 2013, boosting GDP and reducing poverty by 2 points or 600,000 Peruvians. All in a favorable international context, with terms of trade at record levels.
The problem is the backpack. Among them are youth employment that adds up to 3 years of decline, the accelerated expansion of insecurity and illegal mining, and a fiscal deterioration fueled by populism: salaries will now represent 36% of the national budget, leaving room for quality public investment.
With eight presidents since 2016, political instability has become part of the landscape. If we do not recover fiscal discipline, security and clear rules for investing, the rebound of 2025 will be just a fragile respite. The Peruvian athlete’s problem is not the engine, but the backpack that he insists on not letting go.
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