Expected to come into force on January 1st and begin to be paid in February, the new minimum wage of R$1,621 will inject R$81.7 billion into the economy, estimates the Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (Dieese). The calculation considers the effects on income, consumption and collection, even in a scenario of stricter fiscal restrictions.
According to Dieese, around 61.9 million Brazilians will have income directly influenced by the minimum salary. Of this total, 29.3 million are retirees and pensioners of the National Social Security Institute (INSS); 17.7 million employed, 10.7 million self-employed; 3.9 million, domestic workers; and 383 thousand employers.
The new value represents a nominal adjustment of 6.79% in relation to the current minimum, in accordance with the rules established by the permanent minimum wage appreciation policy.
Government accounts
According to Dieese, the adjustment of the minimum directly affects benefits and expenses indexed to the national floor, with relevant impacts on the public budget. See the main impacts:
- R$39.1 billion estimated increase in Social Security expenses in 2026;
- R$380.5 million in additional costs for each R$1 increase in the minimum wage;
- 46% of social security expenses are directly impacted by the adjustment;
- 70.8% of Social Security beneficiaries receive benefits linked to the minimum wage.
The government’s challenge will be to balance the positive effects of increasing the minimum wage on the population’s income with controlling mandatory expenses, especially in a context of seeking to meet fiscal targets.
How the adjustment was calculated
The adjustment of the minimum wage follows the Law 14,663from August 2023, which defines the annual correction based on two factors:
- the variation in the INPC (National Consumer Price Index) from the previous year;
- GDP growth from two years earlier.
However, the calculation for 2026 will be partially limited by the new fiscal framework, defined by Complementary Law 200/2023, which imposes a ceiling on the real growth of Union expenses.
Therefore:
- inflation measured by INPC, 4.18% (accumulated from December last year to November this year), will be fully considered;
- GDP growth, at 3.4%, will be limited to 2.5%, the maximum percentage allowed by the new tax regime.
- The combination of these factors results in a nominal increase of R$103 in the minimum wage.
