Gerónimo Ugarte Bedwell, Chief Economist of Valmex Casa de Bolsa
The Mexican economy is in a process of macroeconomic adjustment that translates into a projected GDP growth of 1.3% in 2026.
It represents a modest rebound after the stagnation of 2025, but remains below productive potential, underscoring the persistence of important internal and external constraints. Coupled with a moderation in purchasing power and the consequent upward rigidity in the path of private consumption, the expansion will be limited by the fiscal consolidation mandate.
Following the high public deficit incurred during 2024, and the transition to partial consolidation in 2025, it is unlikely that the government will be able to implement a countercyclical fiscal policy next year.
What will happen with the review of the T-MEC?
Ricardo Aguilar Abe, Chief Economist and Director of Analysis at Banco Invex
A negative adverse scenario is not anticipated for Mexico, however, it is likely that it will have to yield in relevant aspects related to the predominant origin of the products, their composition, labor and inputs involved in the production. In particular, the United States could require lower content from China in cars and parts exported from Mexico.
Likewise, more equitable conditions could be sought for investors from the United States and Canada in sectors such as energy, where Mexican state companies enjoy greater preference.
Pamela Díaz, Chief Economist for Mexico at BNP Paribas
The review of the T-MEC should be understood as a technical mechanism provided for in the treaty itself. It is important to note that there is no rigid deadline to close it, which could lead to an extension of the negotiations depending on the complexity of the regulatory issues being addressed.
The economic relationship between Mexico and the United States is structural and difficult to reverse, so we believe that the basic outcome will be continuity, although accompanied by greater monitoring and verification mechanisms.
We see three main axes of discussion: productive integration, non-tariff barriers and labor compliance, focused on the practical application of the obligations already in force.
What is the inflation expectation?
Enrique Covarrubias, Chief Economist and Director of Analysis at Actinver
As of October, inflation stood at 3.63%, accumulating seven fortnights within Banxico’s target range thanks to lower agricultural prices due to a good rainy season. We expect this dynamic to continue towards the end of 2025 (3.9%).
However, at the beginning of 2026, some fiscal adjustments could temporarily pressure inflation to 4.5%. The increase in the IEPS on sugary drinks and tobacco would contribute about 14 basis points, while the increase in tariffs on imports from countries without a trade agreement – affecting, above all, electric cars, textiles and footwear – would add about 16 bp.
We anticipate that these effects will fade throughout the year and that inflation will close 2026 at 4.0%.
What should Mexico do to reactivate its economy?
Iván Arias, Director of Economic Studies of Banamex
It is necessary to overcome structural challenges, such as a solid institutional and governance framework, and policies that promote greater productivity, highlighting investment in infrastructure, innovation and technology, as well as education and training, while addressing gaps in inequality, informality and poverty.
In 2026 it will be key for the government to build a better relationship with the United States (in terms of trade, security and migration), as well as with businessmen; Achieving these successes would enhance the country’s economic growth prospects. At Banamex we estimate GDP growth of 0.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026.
Jorge Velarde, professor at the Department of Finance and Business Economics at EGADE
First, it will be key to protect purchasing power through salary policies linked to productivity, agreements to stabilize essential prices and financial education that promotes responsible consumption.
Second, companies must invest in innovation, digitalization and market diversification, reducing dependence on the US market. Solid financial management, currency hedging and expansion into Latin America, Europe and Asia will be critical factors in resisting volatility.
Third, the State must maintain fiscal stability and reach the review of the T-MEC with a geoeconomic strategy that preserves certainty and modernizes chapters on sustainability and digitalization.
Investing in human capital and the green transition will allow us to take advantage of new opportunities in clean energy, advanced manufacturing and electromobility.
What is the main challenge for public finances?
Ricardo Aguilar Abe, Chief Economist and Director of Analysis at Banco Invex
Achieve higher income without creating new taxes. Although it is likely that the public deficit will be 3.6% of GDP at the end of the year, it is likely that this responds more to the continued restriction of spending than to an increase in collection.
Therefore, the tax authority must find mechanisms to combat evasion, collect taxes in a better way, as well as collect tax credits more effectively. Likewise, better schemes must be found so that a greater percentage of the population can move to the formal sector and pay taxes.
Pamela Díaz, Chief Economist for Mexico at BNP Paribas
The convergence between growth, income and increasingly rigid spending. There is a high level of economic uncertainty that could translate into lower revenue than expected, either due to weaker growth or a moderation in the momentum of the domestic market. This is the first source of risk, because the fiscal framework is based on relatively optimistic assumptions about the trajectory of the economy.
The second comes from the collection strategy. A relevant part of the expected increase in revenue is attributed to improvements in customs efficiency and new measures linked to imports. However, if these actions end up reducing the flow of foreign trade, the tax effect could be less than originally contemplated.
Added to this is a financial cost of debt that rests on assumptions of lower interest rates than current ones. The combination significantly reduces the room for maneuver to reallocate resources or respond to unforeseen shocks.
Will it be the year of the super weight?
Gerónimo Ugarte Bedwell, Chief Economist of Valmex Casa de Bolsa
The expectation is for a gradual and orderly depreciation, which indicates the conclusion of the period of strength known as the superpeso. According to our forecasts, the exchange rate will go from 18.65 at the end of 2025 to 19.48 at the end of 2026, an annual correction of approximately 4.45%.
This trajectory would be due, mainly, to an increase in the value of the dollar and would be supported by the fading of the conditions that supported the appreciation.
The forecast of 19.48 reflects an expected correction, conditional on stability in the interest rate differential and successful management of trade conflicts during the review of the T-MEC trilateral agreement.
Iván Arias, Director of Economic Studies of Banamex
The peso has strengthened throughout the year, mainly responding to a general weakening of the dollar, and will remain relatively strong in 2026.
We estimate a gradual depreciation trend due to a certain risk aversion given the environment of uncertainty that will prevail during the T-MEC review and that would extend throughout 2026. In this sense, we estimate that the peso will close 2025 at 18.8 units per dollar and 2026 at 19.7.
As upward risks we highlight greater global uncertainty and an unfavorable review of the T-MEC; and to the downside, better prospects due to nearshoring and an additional weakening of the dollar due to greater cuts compared to the rest of the world or a consolidation of the end of American exceptionalism.
What financial assets will perform the best?
Jannet Quiroz, Director of Economic, Exchange and Stock Market Analysis of Grupo Financiero Monex
The escalation of tariff tensions has fueled the search for refuge in bonds and precious metals, while uncertainty about fiscal sustainability and the slowdown in employment have weakened the dollar’s strength. Investors could move towards assets linked to economic growth, in the industrial, technology and materials sectors.
In contrast, precious metals face a high starting point after their rally in 2025, so their performance could stabilize in high ranges, although limited to new highs on this year’s magnitude.
Jorge Velarde, professor at the Department of Finance and Business Economics at EGADE
The most promising sectors will be tourism, real estate, manufacturing and technology. The World Cup will trigger investment in infrastructure, transportation, hospitality and consumption.
GAP and OMA will benefit from the greater airport flow, while Grupo Posadas and Santa Fe project record occupancies. FEMSA will capitalize on tourist mobility through its OXXO network. Ollamani, owner of the Azteca stadium, will increase its value due to the renovations, and TelevisaUnivision will consolidate income from transmission rights.
The challenge will be to anticipate the implications of the T-MEC and act with a strategic vision, prioritizing diversification.
Luis Gonzali, VP and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Franklin Templeton Mexico
There are a couple of assets that could perform interestingly. Firstly there is Mexican fixed income because the absolute level of rates remains attractive and inflation in Mexico is much more controlled than in the US, so Banxico could maintain its bearish cycle, generating attractive capital gains. Secondly, we believe that US equities could have an attractive year, especially if the risk of a second inflationary wave does not materialize. Although we believe that the market in the United States is in the process of bubble formation, we still do not believe that the conditions exist for it to burst.
