He Financial System Stability Council (CESF), made up of the different authorities of the sector, highlighted, after its last session, that the information available is still limited to determine the dynamics of national economic activity during the fourth quarter of 2025.
However, he pointed out, the indicators foresee a certain rebound compared to the third quarter, and moving forward it is anticipated some recovery during 2026 and 2027although the environment facing the Mexican economy implies certain downward risks.
“However, it stands out that the sovereign credit rating maintains the investment grade by all the agencies that evaluate it,” he stated.
The CESF highlighted that local financial markets have maintained generally orderly behavior and low volatility.
In particular, he pointed out that since his last session, the exchange rate of the Mexican pesowith respect to the US dollar, accumulated an appreciation of slightly more than 2 percent.
“For their part, the interest rates on government securities They registered increases in practically all segments of the curve, particularly concentrated in the medium and long term; while the main stock indices were at levels similar to those at the end of September,” he explained.
Solid and resilient financial system
The CESF emphasized that, in this environment, the Mexican financial system As a whole, it maintains a solid and resilient position, which allows it to have sufficient capacity to absorb shocks and preserve adequate and stable operation, even in the face of the possible materialization of adverse scenarios.
“This is essentially due to the fact that commercial banks have levels of capital and liquidity that comfortably meet the minimum regulatory requirements,” he stressed.
Global uncertainty
At a global level, the CESF stated that it is estimated that, during the fourth quarter of 2025, the economic activity has continued to moderate compared to the previous quarter, as a result of lower growth, both in advanced and emerging economies.
He said that although the most recent projections for global economic growth They continue to anticipate a slowdown during 2025 and 2026, this is more moderate than that expected in previous months, followed by a partial recovery in 2027.
“However, the outlook for the global economy is still subject to a high degree of uncertainty, particularly around the possible effects of the tariff measures imposed by the United States,” he argued.
He added that, for their part, the global financial markets recorded a relatively stable behavior, with some episodes of moderate volatility, mainly associated with the uncertainty caused by the lack of economic publications after the closure of some government operations; a sense of caution due to high valuations in the technology sector and in capital markets; as well as concerns about fiscal aspects in some developed economies.
In this sense, he commented that from now on, some global risks persist, the materialization of which could affect financial stability.
