Compared to the second quarter, the increase was 1.1%.
GDP was boosted in particular by an increase in consumption, exports and government spending, partially offset downward by a drop in investment, according to the Commerce Department.
In the United States, the statistical service of the Department of Commerce (BEA) prioritizes the quarterly measurement of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in an annual projection, an estimate for 12 months if the conditions at the time of collecting the data were maintained.
Above expectations
Analysts expected a moderation in activity, with annualized GDP growth around 3.2%, compared to 3.8% in the previous quarter, according to consensus published by MarketWatch and Trading Economics.
The data released on Tuesday – a preliminary estimate – is published almost two months late due to the “shutdown” (from October 1 to November 12) that suspended the work of statistical agencies due to lack of budget.
The indicator, very good at first glance, cooled the US financial markets, which should open the session in the red.
For Wall Street, “with such a strong GDP, the Fed (Federal Reserve, central bank of the United States) has one more reason to prefer the status quo (of interest rates) at its next meeting,” explains Sam Stovall, analyst at the CFRA firm, to AFP.
Low rates make credit cheaper and boost consumption and investment.
Financial markets were still expecting a Fed rate cut on January 28 to further boost growth. Until now, the GDP has evolved in fits and starts.
An unexpected contraction (-0.6%) was recorded at the beginning of the year, due to an avalanche of imports to get ahead of the tariffs that President Donald Trump was putting in place.
The second quarter surprised in the opposite direction. A decline in imports and solid consumption gave a boost to the economy.
Uncertain future
Beyond these quarterly fluctuations, those responsible for the Fed expected that the United States would close 2025 with growth of 1.7% compared to 2024.
GDP was growing 2.8% year-on-year at the end of 2024, that is, before Donald Trump returned to the White House in January.
The US Executive maintains that its policy, which it describes as “pro-growth”, with tariffs, tax cuts and deregulation, is bearing fruit.
With polls showing growing discontent among voters over the cost of living, the government is particularly highlighting the additional tax credits they should receive next year.
Pantheon Macroeconomics estimates that these tax credits will have a “moderate impact” on growth in 2026, as “the relatively low level of consumer confidence tends to suggest that many households will save a large portion” of that money.
Some economists also consider that growth is poorly balanced, as it is mainly supported by investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and the construction of data centers, while more traditional sectors are stagnating.
