The official inflation preview for December was 0.25%, a result that makes the 12-month accumulated Broad National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) mark 4.41%, within the limit of the government’s target.
It is the second month in a row with accumulated inflation within the tolerance margin. In November, the IPCA-15 had dropped to 4.5%, after having been outside the limit since January. In April, the highest point since then, it reached 5.49%.
The data was released this Tuesday (23) by Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
The latest Focus newslettera Central Bank survey of financial institutions, released this Monday (22), estimates that official inflation will end 2025 at 4.33%, that is, within the target tolerance limit.
Preview x IPCA
The IPCA-15 basically has the same methodology as the IPCA, the so-called official inflation, which serves as the basis for the government’s inflation target policy, of 3% in 12 months, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less.
The difference lies in the price collection period and geographic coverage. In the preview, the research is carried out and published even before the reference month ends. In relation to the current disclosure, the collection period was from November 14th to December 12th.
The IPCA-15 collects prices in 11 locations across the country (the metropolitan regions of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, in addition to Brasília and Goiânia); and the IPCA, 16 locations (includes Vitória, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís and Aracaju). The full IPCA for December will be released on January 9th.
Both indices take into account a basket of products and services for families with incomes between one and 40 minimum wages. Currently the minimum value is R$1,518.
(Under update)
