The escalation of the United States against ships loaded with oil from Venezuela threatens to stop production and suffocate its economy, while fueling the recurring theory of Chavismo: Donald Trump seeks to overthrow Nicolás Maduro to control the country’s wealth
The United States mobilized a gigantic military fleet to the Caribbean for what was first sold as an operation against drug trafficking and now includes two military confiscations of oil tankers and a blockade of this type of vessels to and from Venezuela when it comes to sanctioned vessels.
Trump has said that Maduro’s days are numbered and that he did not rule out a war with Venezuela. Maduro “knows exactly what I want,” the president told the NBC channel. Is it oil?
old supplier
The United States exploited Venezuela’s oil for decades, from the first discoveries in the 1920s until nationalization in 1976.
Many US refineries were in fact designed to process this type of crude, known as heavy and extra-heavy due to its high density.
Venezuela produces almost a million barrels per day and Chevron is the only one authorized to take its oil from Venezuela to the United States, amid an embargo that Trump himself imposed in 2019.
There are approximately 200,000 barrels, a sector source explained to AFP. They travel on non-sanctioned ships, safe from military operations.
A first ship was intercepted on December 10 and taken to the United States with its cargo. There were 1.9 million barrels, according to Maduro, who called the operation “criminal naval piracy.”
A second vessel was detained on Saturday and the US Coast Guard reported a pursuit of a third, without specifying details.
*Read also: Ghost and sanctioned ships: pillars of Maduro’s oil business in check by Trump
Blocking Scope
Trump ordered sanctioned ships to be blocked, but analysts warn that the measure is vague and could affect any ship carrying Venezuelan crude oil, except those that work for Chevron.
Venezuela exports about 500,000 barrels on the black market, mainly to Asia, said Juan Szabo, a consultant and former vice president of the state-run PDVSA.
The second seized ship was not in fact on the US blacklist, according to an AFP review that determined that the tanker does not appear on the US Treasury Department’s list of sanctioned companies and individuals.
The policy is not rigorous: some ships have passed without problems, but the risk can increase freight rates or drive away shipping companies, Szabo said.
PDVSA assures that exports continue normally, a key point given the low existing storage capacity, of just two to three days, according to the source.
“If there is a true blockade, production will stop very quickly like in the great strike of 2002,” he explained in relation to the strike in protest against then-president Hugo Chávez.
Geopolitics
The United Nations Security Council is scheduled to meet on the issue for Tuesday.
The United States’ pressure on Maduro began in September with the bombing of boats that were linked to an alleged cartel headed by the leftist ruler. There are more than 100 deaths in these operations against the so-called “drug boats.”
Carlos Mendoza Potellá, professor of energy economics in Venezuela, located the events around Venezuelan oil in what he called the “Trump Doctrine”, in which the United States “reserves America” within the framework of its new security strategy.
“This is not just oil, it is the division of the world” with China and Russia, he added. “We are the first instance, the first demonstration of that power,” he stated.
Since the time of Chávez, the Venezuelan government has denounced the US ambition for the largest crude oil reserves on the planet.
Trump already unsuccessfully sought the fall of Maduro in his first government with a policy of maximum pressure through sanctions.
hit to the wallet
The blockade adds pressure to Venezuela’s already battered economy, which will end this year with hyperinflation.
Venezuelans do not stop talking about the US military deployment, although in whispers, fearful of ending up in prison. Some hope for a bombing that will end 26 years of Chavismo, and others fear that isolation will lead back to those days when you had to wait in long lines to buy coffee or sugar.
Szabo estimates that exports will fall 45% in the next four months, which represents a hit to the State’s wallet.
In March and April “foreign currency income will be a third of what it was when the country was already in crisis,” he warned. “There is going to be a huge increase in prices.”
*Journalism in Venezuela is carried out in a hostile environment for the press with dozens of legal instruments in place to punish the word, especially the laws “against hate”, “against fascism” and “against the blockade.” This content was written taking into consideration the threats and limits that, consequently, have been imposed on the dissemination of information from within the country.
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