The rebound was mainly driven by tertiary activities, which grew 1.2% monthly and 2.5% annually, their best performance since May 2024.
Business support services (9.3%), professional services (7.5%), leisure and cultural activities (5.7%), health (5.6%) and retail trade (4.1%) stood out.
In contrast, sectors linked to discretionary consumption and tourism activity continue to show weakness, such as accommodation and food preparation services, which fell 2.5% annually.
For their part, secondary activities registered a monthly advance of 0.7%, the first since May, although at an annual rate they remain in contraction (-0.7%), accumulating eight consecutive months of declines.
Internally, manufacturing fell 1.4% annually, with five consecutive months in negative territory, while mining fell 0.7%, extending a streak of more than two years of annual declines. Construction was the exception, with annual growth of 1.5%, after several months of setbacks.
Accumulated of the year, the lowest since 2020
In the accumulated year, the IGAE shows a growth of just 0.2% annually, the lowest for a comparable period since 2020, a year marked by the health crisis, “which reflects a notable loss of dynamism in the main productive sectors,” Monex said in a report.
Before the pandemic, only years associated with recessions—such as 2019, 2009 or 1995—recorded similar performances, according to an analysis by Banco BASE. Where it is added that, despite the better data for October, signs of structural weakness persist in the industry, particularly in manufacturing, which limits growth prospects towards the end of the year.
With an average monthly growth of 0.16% between January and November, Banco BASE estimates that, if this trend is repeated in December, the fourth quarter GDP could grow around 0.8% quarterly and 1.2% annually.
However, by 2025, annual GDP growth is expected to be close to 0.6%, reflecting an economy that is advancing, but with momentum that is still fragile and highly dependent on the services sector.
“Towards the end of the year, challenges associated with the weakening of manufacturing, the uncertainty of the commercial environment and a pressured internal political-economic context persist, which will continue to limit growth prospects. Under this context, by the end of 2025 we estimate a GDP expansion of 0.41% annually,” explained Monex.
