When 2025 ends, probably the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Dominican Republic does not exceed 2.5% growth, lower than its potential, which is 5%. Although with a better projection for next year, the local economy will continue under the effects of the uncertainty that currently affects the world, basically derived from the change in the American trade policy.
The projections for the 2026 of the main international organizations once again warn that the situation of global instability could continue to influence the economic growth of the countries, which has motivated them to revise their projections downwards.
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), he World Bank (BM) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have already advanced their growth estimates for the country in 2026the most optimistic place the expansion of Dominican GDP by 4.5% and the least by 3.6%.
The projections of the ECLAC They are the least hopeful for the country. The organization announced that next year the local economy will grow by 3.6%, a figure that implies a reduction of 0.7 percentage points from the 4.3% it estimated in October. The drop is greater when compared to that of August, when the entity estimated an expansion of 4.8% for the 2026.
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“The slowdown of the world economy will continue in 2026. After registering a growth of 3.3% in 2024, the dynamism of the global economy was slightly reduced in 2025, and an expansion of 3.2% is projected for the year. This performance is explained by the tariff escalation carried out by the United States and by a general context of high uncertainty,” ECLAC warned last week.
For this year, the regional entity considers that the Dominican GDP will close with a growth of 2.9%.
He Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) is less optimistic than ECLACand placed the economic growth of the country for this year, although it raised it to a figure above 4% and below 5% for the 2026.
He B.M. and the IMF give better numbers in their projections for the expansion of the National GDP. By 2025, both organizations agree that the country would close to 3% growth. Meanwhile, for next year, the first estimates 4.3% and the second 4.5%.
In the case of World Bankits projections for the end of this year imply a reduction of one percentage point, compared to the 4% it had estimated last June.
Inflation
About the inflationother economic components that usually worry Dominicans, the Monetary Fund It projects that this will reach 4.0% for next year, while for 2025 it places it at 3.7%.
However, the records of BCRD reflect that as of November of this year the year-on-year inflation It stood at 4.84%, which indicates that the consumer price index will end the year above estimates.
Trade
World trade projections for 2026 have suffered several downward revisions.
This correction reflects two expectations: first, that the level of tariffs next year, while not as high as initial announcements suggested, will be significant and, second, that the temporary impulse associated with the advance of imports will dissipate, as will the lagged impact of higher tariffs.
This is established by an analysis of the ECLACin which he warned that as a result, according to the latest projection, the volume of world trade of goods would only grow by 0.5% in 2026.
