The dollar reached its highest value in almost a month and the stock exchange closed at the lowest level since the end of January amid concerns about the meetings of the central banks of the United States and Brazil tomorrow (16). The fall in the price of commodities (primary goods with international quotation) also aggravated the instability in the financial market of emerging countries.
The commercial dollar closed this Tuesday (15) sold at R$ 5.159, up by R$ 0.039 (0.76%). As in recent days, the currency started lower, but reversed the trend after the opening of the North American market. The price ranged from BRL 5.09, around 9:20 am, to BRL 5.17, around 3:30 pm.
Up for the fourth session in a row, the US currency is at its highest value since February 17, when it approached R$5.17. With today’s performance, the currency has zeroed the low accumulated in March. In 2022, the dollar registers a fall of 7.48%.
In the stock market, the day was also tense. B3’s Ibovespa index fell for the third time in a row. The indicator closed at 108,959 points, down 0.88% and is at the lowest level since January 24, when it was around 107,000 points.
Tomorrow, both the Federal Reserve (Fed, North American Central Bank) and the Brazilian Central Bank (BC) will meet to define the basic interest rate in both countries. Although the Fed has announced that it will raise interest rates for the first time since the beginning of the covid-19 pandemic, some investors fear that the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and high inflation in the United States will make the body raise the rate by 0 .5 percentage point, higher than the 0.25 point forecast that was in effect until recently.
Higher interest rates in advanced economies encourage capital flight from emerging countries. In Brazil, the expectation is that the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) will raise the Selic rate (basic interest rates) by 1 percentage point, to 11.75% per year.
Another factor that contributed to the rise in the dollar and the fall in the stock market was the reduction in the price of commodities, which are on a corrective move after an excessive rally in the first two weeks of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The price of a barrel of Brent oil, used in international negotiations, closed below US$ 100 for the first time since February 28. The cheapening of commodities reduces the inflow of foreign exchange in countries that export agricultural and mineral goods, such as Brazil.
* With information from Reuters
