“If forecasts are confirmed, world trade will exceed $35 trillion for the first time this year, which represents an increase of $2.2 trillion (approximately 7% more) compared to 2024,” indicated the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in its latest assessment.
According to these forecasts, trade in goods should represent an increase of approximately 1.5 trillion dollars, while trade in services should grow around 750 billion dollars.
However, according to UNCTAD, “the dynamic should weaken in 2026.”
Difficult 2026
“The slowdown in global growth, the increase in debt, the increase in trade costs and the persistence of uncertainty may affect trade flows,” the organization considered.
Between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2025, UNCTAD found that trade in developing countries grew faster than the global average, with an increase of around 8%, demonstrating “growing resilience” in these regions.
Specifically, East Asia recorded a 9% increase in exports during that period, compared to 7% for South America, 6% for Europe and Africa, and 2% for North America.
The manufacturing sector “remained an essential driver” of global trade, growing 10% over the past four quarters.
Electronics, in particular, drove growth with a 14% increase in the same period, supported by strong demand related to artificial intelligence, according to UNCTAD.
On the contrary, in the automobile sector there was a decrease in trade of 4% in the last four quarters.
