This year Santa Claus It will not be able to give us a World Cup qualification, a reduction in public spending on the payroll or less populism in Congress, but it will not bring coal either, because a christmas campaign which has a better projection than that of 2024.
What is so special about Christmas 2025? Although we have a large number of ‘Grinch’ who want to overshadow this date, such as the continued political instability or Parliament’s commitment to illegal mining through the search for a two-year extension of the Comprehensive Registry of Mining Formalization (Reinfo), in economics there are indicators that will help ensure that there is no shortage of gifts under the tree this year.
And there are indicators that have turned on the lights of expectations. According to figures from the Central Reserve Bank (BCR), domestic demand grew 5.9% in the third quarter —and within this indicator, private consumption advanced 3.6%—, while private investment increased 11.4%. To this we must add that inflation remains within the target range (between 1% and 3%) and that the economy is growing within the framework of what was projected (recording an advance of 3.3% between January and September).
Although these results could be better if the authorities worked like Santa’s elves at Christmas time, they are a starting point for optimism in the malls. José Contreras, general manager of the Association of Shopping and Entertainment Centers of Peru (Accep), explained that for this year sales in the sector would increase by 9% and would total approximately S/40,000 million.
Meanwhile, for this campaign, which is the most important of the year, a growth of around 10% is expected. The enthusiasm even began at the beginning of November, when some spaces began with decorations and sales of items linked to the end-of-year holidays.
“There is optimism and we see this because employment has grown, because there is greater spending capacity and people are willing to consume. We even know that there are companies that are paying advance profits to their workers because they have done well, which drives this consumption. We see that it is a good year for mining and industrial companies, and that benefits us all,” he added.
Although there is a growing demand for online sales, physical spaces continue to lead commerce, even more so at this time. According to José Contreras, this preference is due to the experience provided by going to a shopping center, where it is now more common to see seasonal decorations, as well as tree lightings, which attract a large number of customers looking for a space to begin to feel the season.
“The customer prefers the physical store because they have the option to try on what they are going to buy and because of the experience of going to a shopping center,” he added and recalled that, when the person goes to the shopping center with the purpose of purchasing an item, they usually purchase more products taking advantage of the moment.
For this reason, although this is a time to share and spend time with family, spending also increases. Thus, the average ticket, which normally varies between S/200 and S/250, would rise to S/400.
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Someone who is also optimistic about this campaign is Leslie Passalacqua, president of the Retail union of the Lima Chamber of Commerce (CCL), who indicated that the flow of visits is growing between 3% and 4% in recent months.
“We had July and August that were complicated, where we had no growth compared to the previous year, but neither from one month to the next. The figures are already recovering and we hope that with this, consumption will improve at Christmas,” he highlighted.
Expectations are also high because, as explained by the CCL representative, this campaign represents between 30% and 40% of the total annual sales of these commercial establishments.
“Pre-Christmas for us is done with cyber, with Black Friday, which drives sales and self-gifts. We see the latter with people who are looking for electronic products, either to improve the cell phone they have now or laptops. There are also people who are looking for items for the summer, taking advantage of the fact that that season is already beginning,” he explained.
For this reason, it is estimated that for the end-of-year holidays, the star products will be linked to technology, video games, and the home. Something that never goes out of style and that will also be in high demand this year are toys, especially those that are linked to the movies that are in theaters.
One of the advantages of this festival is that it includes all regions. However, beyond Lima, the north of the country is one of the areas that has seen the greatest rebound this season, where Chiclayo and Trujillo stand out, according to Passalacqua.
“In the center of the country we have Huancayo with high demand; and in the south you have Arequipa, which has a lot of demand and supply of shopping centers,” he commented.
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