The atmosphere of tension between Caracas and Washington escalated again after the statements of the president of the United States, donald trumpwho assured on Saturday that the airspace “over and around Venezuela should be considered closed in its entirety.” Although he did not offer further details, his words reinforced fears of a possible military intensification, while the White House maintains its pressure against the government of Nicolás Maduro.
According to the agency ReutersVenezuelan military power is very far from being able to match that of the United States. The report states that the Armed Forces face “lack of training, low salaries and deterioration of equipment.”
The common soldiers They earn only about 100 dollars a month in local currency, “approximately one fifth of what an average family needs to meet their basic needs.”
Sources consulted by Reuterswith direct knowledge of Venezuelan military capabilities, agree that, despite the loyalty Maduro has cultivated by placing officers in government positions, internal discontent could translate into an increase in defections if a US attack were to occur.
In recent years, The troops’ direct experience “has been confronting unarmed civilians during street protests.”.
Much of the Venezuelan military equipment – Russian-made and acquired decades ago – is obsolete. Although Caracas has about 20 Sukhoi fighter aircraft, “they are considered poor compared to the American B-2s,” and the same goes for helicopters, tanks and portable missiles.
Maduro’s strategy: guerrilla and chaos
Planning documents and testimonials mentioned by Reuters indicate that Venezuela contemplates a response based on irregular warfare tactics if an air or ground offensive by the United States occurs. High-ranking officials have spoken publicly of a “prolonged resistance”without specifying details.
The plan, according to the agency, provides for the action of small military units distributed in more than 280 points in the country, dedicated to “acts of sabotage and other guerrilla tactics”. Likewise, the approximately 5,000 Russian-made Igla missiles would have already been deployed, and internal orders instruct units to disperse and hide in the event of an eventual attack.
A second strategy, known internally as “anarchization”, Not officially recognized, it involves intelligence bodies and armed sympathizers of the ruling party to generate disorder in Caracas and make governability difficult.
Other actors on the ground
The report mentions that in the west of the country they operate Colombian guerrilla groups such as the ELNin a region where part of the coca cultivation is also concentrated. The so-called collectives – armed supporters of Chavismo who mobilize in motorcycle caravans – are also part of the mosaic of actors that could intervene in a conflict scenario.
Opposition groups, NGOs, Latin American governments and Washington have repeatedly accused the ruling party and the military high command of maintaining links to drug trafficking organizations.
Maduro has rejected these accusations and maintains that the United States seeks a “regime change” to appropriate the country’s vast oil reserves.
