The former president of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro This Tuesday, he began serving a 27-year prison sentence for leading an attempted coup d’état in 2022, while his successor and nemesis, current president Lula da Silva, leads all scenarios for the next elections.
The decision of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), headed by Judge Alexandre de Moraes, marked a milestone in the country’s democratic history: for the first time a former president was convicted of conspiring to abolish the constitutional order.
Bolsonaro, 70, was transferred to a Federal Police cell in Brasilia on Saturday after trying to manipulate his electronic anklet with a soldering iron, according to press reports.
The court considered that he represented a flight risk and ordered his preventive detention, which became the formal start of his sentence after exhausting his appeals.
Prison conditions
The former president occupies a 12 square meter room equipped with a bed, private bathroom, air conditioning, television and desk. You will not have contact with other inmates.
His defense insists that the former president’s health—affected by intestinal surgeries and the consequences of the stab wound he suffered in 2018—requires a special regime, but the STF has repeatedly rejected the request for house arrest.
His lawyers announced that they will appeal to international bodies, while his family denounces “political persecution” and “torture” due to the conditions of detention.
Flávio Bolsonaro, senator and son of the former president, demanded “dignified treatment” and asked Congress to vote on an amnesty project for those convicted of a coup.
The Liberal Party (PL), Bolsonaro’s main force in Parliament, presented an amnesty initiative two months ago that would benefit the former president and his allies. Although it has not yet been included in the voting agenda, Flávio Bolsonaro assures that they have enough votes to approve it.
Meanwhile, the polarization around his case is reflected in the streets and on social networks, where supporters and detractors of the former president have faced each other with hate speech and questions about the judicial system on the one hand, and celebrations on the other.
Doomed Allies
Bolsonaro is not the only former senior official behind bars. Two generals who were ministers in his government, Augusto Heleno and Paulo Sérgio Nogueira, were arrested and taken to military facilities in Brasilia.
The former Minister of Justice, Anderson Torres, is serving his sentence in the Papuda penitentiary, while Admiral Almir Garnier is being held in Navy facilities. Walter Braga Netto, former Defense Minister and Bolsonaro’s running mate, also remains in prison in Rio de Janeiro.
For his part, legislator Alexandre Ramagem, former head of the intelligence agency, is a fugitive in the United States.
Bolsonaro’s conviction is the outcome of a prolonged confrontation between Brazilian institutions and a president who governed through destabilization. From the COVID-19 pandemic, when he downplayed the health crisis and promoted unproven drugs, to the 2022 electoral defeat, Bolsonaro repeatedly challenged the limits of the democratic system.
The STF assumed an unprecedented role: it opened investigations, authorized raids and finally tried and sentenced the former president.
For many, the prominence of the Judiciary reflects both the strength and weaknesses of Brazilian democracy. “The prominence of the Supreme Court comes from a deeper institutional imbalance,” explained Filipe Campante, professor at Johns Hopkins University.
A lethal plot
The coup plot included plans to assassinate President Lula da Silva, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and Judge De Moraes himself. It also contemplated declaring a state of emergency to annul the 2022 elections and deploy the Armed Forces. The plan failed due to lack of military support, but led to the January 8, 2023 assault on government buildings in Brasilia.
The case has been compared to the assault on the US Capitol in January 2021. Bolsonaro, an ally of Donald Trump, received initial support from Washington, which went so far as to impose tariffs on Brazilian exports in protest of the trial. However, the pressure faded and Trump’s most recent reaction to Bolsonaro’s imprisonment was a terse “what a shame.”
Bolsonaro joins the list of former Brazilian presidents who have faced prison, such as Michel Temer, Fernando Collor de Mello and Lula himself, the latter later vindicated in his innocence by justice itself. Bolsonaro is the first to be convicted of attempting a coup d’état.
Lula, unbeatable in the polls
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads all scenarios for next year’s October elections in Brazil, according to a CNT/MDA survey released this Tuesday, which also showed an increase in the positive evaluation of the federal government and in the president’s personal approval.
According to the survey, carried out by the MDA institute and commissioned by the National Transport Confederation, Lula leads the scenario that includes former president Jair Bolsonaro, ineligible to compete, by 39%-27%. In the previous survey, in September, Lula won by 36%-30%.
The other possible candidates account for 23% of the preferences.
In a simulation with the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, who has been identified as a possible candidate for Bolsonaro for the presidency, Lula would win 42%-22%.
If deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro, accused in the Supreme Federal Court (STF) of trying to interfere in the process in which his father was convicted of an attempted coup d’état, appeared as a candidate, Lula would win by 4 3%-17%, according to that poll.
Lula also has an advantage in all second round scenarios.
The survey also showed that Lula’s positive evaluation was 34%, compared to 31% in September; while their negative evaluation was 36%, compared to 40% in the previous survey.
The sample interviewed about two thousand people between November 19 and 23. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
