Since arrival by Nicolás Maduro to power in 2013, the Venezuelan political chronicle is that of a succession of failed dialogues and negotiations with the opposition. Although more than a dozen meetings and the mediation of multiple actors internationally, the prolonged political conflict cannot be resolved at the table.
Based on an analysis of documented negotiation rounds by CNN, the path towards a consensual exit has been reactivated cyclically, generally in response tointernal crises or in the context of intense protests.
The first formal approach occurred in 2014, driven by protests that left dozens dead. Maduro himself called for a “National Conference for Peace” in Miraflores. However, this and the subsequent round of televised talks failed to achieve significant results.
Tension was revived after the opposition triumph in the 2015 legislative elections. In 2016, given the annulment of the request for a recall referendum, the Vatican entered the scene with the mediation of Pope Francis, along with a commission of former Unasur presidents. This process, which lasted until 2017, failed by not responding to opposition requests about the powers of the National Assembly and the release of political prisoners.
Internationalization and Norway
The crisis is worsened in 2017 with the stripping of functions to the National Assembly and the call for a Constituent Assembly. The dialogues became international, moving to the Dominican Republic at the end of 2017. Despite the presence of guarantor countries such as Chile, Mexico and Bolivia, The discussion on guarantees for the 2018 presidential elections collapsed in February of that year.
After the ignorance of the results of 2018 and Juan Guaidó’s self-proclamation in 2019, mediation passed into the hands of Norway. The first key process under the “Norwegian method” was Barbados I (2019), where the parties discussed lifting sanctions and holding elections with guarantees. However, the conversations were suspended due to lack of progress and complaints from the opposition that there were no conditions for a competitive election.
Agreements, exchanges and breakup
After a pause due to the pandemic, the dialogue is It was formally reactivated in Mexico City in August 2021. The foundations laid by Norway focused on specific points such as the defense of sovereignty over the Essequibo and a “Partial Agreement for Social Protection” intended for humanitarian aid.
The process was resumed with greater force in Barbados II in October 2023, where a key agreement was signed that established a route for free and transparent presidential elections in 2024, along with a procedure to lift political disqualifications. This agreement facilitated a historic prisoner exchange with the United States (including the release of Alex Saab) and the relief of some trade sanctions.
However, this last attempt at a negotiated solution was paralyzed in January 2024. The government He was considered “mortally wounded” after denouncing alleged conspiratorial plans, while the opposition denounced the violation of the pact due to the ratification of the political disqualification of the winning candidate of the primaries, María Corina Machado. Thus, after 11 years, the negotiation cycle returned to a stalemate.
Read the full note on CNN
