With no official inflation figures since 2024, Venezuelans live with prices that rise faster than their income, while debts and installment payments multiply. Economist Aarón Olmos warns that the country has returned to a logic of survival: households prioritize only the basics and there is no longer enough salary
The image of a housewife who only buys the essentials because money is not enough, reviewed by the AFP agencysummarizes a good part of the Venezuelan economic present. While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects inflation for the country of 548% in 2025 and 629% in 2026, and other economists speak of scenarios above 800%, Nicolás Maduro’s administration has not published official inflation data since October 2024. On the street, the data that rules is another: how much the price of groceries rises each week.
In an interview on the program “Night D”, broadcast on the digital platforms of SuchWhichOlmos stated that in Venezuela “there is no good salary” because prices continue to grow at high speed. The variation of the official exchange rate between January and November is around 340%, while annualized monetary liquidity is around 180%. Those two variables, he said, destroy any real earning capacity.
Inflation without official figures, but very visible
Although the Central Bank of Venezuela has not published the inflation index for more than a year, different unofficial calculations speak of increases that could be between 200% and 300% annually. The International Monetary Fund projects 548% in 2025 and 629% in 2026, while some economists cited by AFP propose scenarios higher than 800%.
Olmos recalled that several private firms estimated three-digit inflation in the previous months and that, even without official figures, consumers perceive interday variations in prices. “Depending on the sector, the change can be daily or weekly,” he noted.
According to Olmos, a key element of the economic deterioration has been the drop in the amount and effectiveness of the Central Bank’s exchange interventions. They are more than 66 so far this year, but with fewer and fewer dollars on the table. This creates a “unmet demand for foreign exchange” which pushes the official price and the parallel price up.
Added to this is the reduction in oil income. The economist recalled that in 2022 Venezuelan oil rose from 56 and 58 dollars to almost 100 due to an external event – the war in Ukraine -, which generated a temporary flow of currency and the story that “Venezuela is fixed.” “Nothing could be further from the truth,” he said. Today the country sells crude oil at discounts and receives less net income, even below 40 dollars in some shipments, a situation that reduces the ability to contain the exchange rate.
Homes caught between the urgent and the important
He Athens consumer study Consulting Grouppresented in the same schedule one night beforeindicates that close to 30% of spending goes on food and 20% on transportation: Half of the family income is committed to eating and moving. The rest is distributed between basic services, education, health and connectivity.
«Venezuelans live in subsistence mode. The basics are prioritized and there is little room for other activities»Olmos stated. He recalled that many families must decide if this week they buy food, the next they take care of a health problem and the next they solve a minimal repair at home. “There is no capacity to address several problems at the same time.”
The situation worsens with data from Cáritas de Venezuela: 29.5% of the children evaluated have malnutrition and 18% of pregnant women are at nutritional riskwith states such as Portuguesa, Zulia, Bolívar and Falcón at emergency levels. For Olmos, this shows that the income problem is structural and hits the most vulnerable communities the hardest.
Debts, installment payments and low credit capacity
Although some banks began to increase credit card limits, the amounts are still very low and in bolivars, making them insufficient. “If before it wasn’t even enough for a coffee, now it’s at least enough for some basic products, but it evaporates quickly,” he said.
The void left by bank credit was filled by installment purchasing applications, which allow you to pay for food, clothing or household products in installments. These platforms have expanded their presence in the country and maintain delinquency levels below 3%.
However, Olmos warned about the risk of becoming over-indebted: «There are people with three profiles in the same application and another two on different platforms. “That is unsustainable.” He insisted that households must use these tools in a planned manner.
How to protect yourself?
The economist maintained that there are no uniform solutions, but there are some recommendations:
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Find additional incomeespecially through remote jobs or small digital services.
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Compare prices and buy wholesale to reduce costs.
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Use differently credit cards, dollars, bolivars and fee applications, as the case may be.
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Maintain community support networkswhich have already resurfaced as in the hardest years of the crisis.
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Plan the expense with clarity between what is urgent and what can be postponed.
Even so, he insisted that no strategy is sufficient without a coherent economic policy: “We need coordination, producing more and containing the rise in the exchange rate. As long as that does not happen, Venezuelans will continue trapped in an economy that only allows them to survive.
*Journalism in Venezuela is carried out in a hostile environment for the press with dozens of legal instruments in place to punish the word, especially the laws “against hate”, “against fascism” and “against the blockade.” This content was written taking into consideration the threats and limits that, consequently, have been imposed on the dissemination of information from within the country.
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