The latest national Ipsos survey for Peru21 has shown that, five months before the elections, there is no candidate who exceeds 10% of the voting intention for the Presidency of the Republic.
Political analyst José Carlos Requena warned that this situation of “immobility” in which “those candidates who have been appearing for a long time, with first and last name, in the polls, find themselves, could continue for at least a couple of months.”
“Perhaps the internal election at the end of the month will move something and excite something, but the truth is, with the delivery now (from Ipsos) I see, on the one hand, immobility in the case of the candidates who have already been in the polls for a long time,” he declared.
According to the latest Ipsos survey for this newspaper, carried out nationally on November 6 and 7, Rafael López Aliaga (9%), Keiko Fujimori (8%), Mario Vizcarra (7%) and Carlos Álvarez (4%) repeat the same location and the same percentage compared to the month of October0—except for the leader of Fuerza Popular who rises one point.
“It is true that Keiko Fujimori rose one point, but considering that it is within the margin of error, it is most likely that it will remain the same. I think there are two more interesting changes: the significant reduction of the vote in Blanco/Viciado/None – from 39% to 30% – and that leads to the second, which is the appearance of new names such as Javier Velásquez Quesquén, who is not yet a candidate – he has to compete with 14 others within his party -, or that of Carlos Espá,” Requena warned in an interview with Peru21.
“This indicates the possibility that the offer, the main showcase, will expand. They are not unknown, but they are people who are a little removed from the public scene, and in the case of Espá he is a debutant in political responsibilities. I think that the electorate is broadening its gaze and seeing those candidates that until now they had not had on the tip of their tongues,” he remarked.
Requena was also consulted about the possibility that this 30% percentage of the White/Viciado/None option continues to decrease. “What usually happens is that this actually decreases, I don’t think it will remain at those levels. I do believe that there was that apathy that the electorate has maintained in recent months. Now we will have to see if that trend continues. I think that the next measurement is going to be key to see if there is a trend, but at least this month it is as if people had wanted to broaden their view because, of course, they have many candidates and at the same time have great apathy. I think that people begin to dig a little deeper to see what they find,” he stated.
Is there, then, a sort of displacement of the “fixed” candidates who appear at the top of the polls? he was asked. “Exactly. There is like a search for something different. George Forsyth was not listed last month and Alfredo Barnechea himself returns after having been displaced – both have 2% of voting intention, according to Ipsos -. We are beginning to see names that were not on the main menu and surely this will continue to move,” he anticipated.
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