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“Tax uncertainty: a brake on growth”

“Tax uncertainty: a brake on growth”

BY RONIN

Stability and respect for the rules of the game in a country are essential to provide confidence to economic agents when making their spending decisions. In the tax field, this premise becomes even more important: tax uncertainty is one of the biggest obstacles to the operation of businesses. This insecurity can have various sources, some of a more macroeconomic nature, such as changes in the fiscal policy of governments; and others of a microeconomic nature. In this area, the lack of precision of the legal framework and the consequent capricious interpretation by the tax administration stands out. And, on top of this, very long processes of litigation unfold that often lead to paths contrary to all logic.

The World Bank (WB) Business Ready report considers taxation as one of the key areas in the operation and expansion of companies. This area measures, in turn, three pillars: the quality of the regulatory framework, the services provided by tax agencies and the operational efficiency of the tax system. According to the same report, Peru ranks 34th out of 50 countries analyzed in the general functioning of the tax system (see graph 1), that is, in the bottom third, and below other countries in the region evaluated, such as Mexico (8), Colombia (18) and Paraguay (26).

Litigation

The WB report shows that, in terms of litigation, Peru does not beat any of the countries evaluated. He’s the last one in line. The time elapsed between the moment a taxpayer files a claim and the moment the resolution is issued can be greater than 1 year, while in the most efficient countries, such as Estonia, it takes only 1 month and in Colombia it takes 3 months. And this does not consider the tortuous path during which the Tax Administration questions the decisions of the Tax Court, which leads to the processes being judicialized for many years.

Another indicator linked to uncertainty is the duration of tax audits. Delays in audits increase compliance costs and generate distortions in the functioning of economic activities. In this category, Peru only surpasses 5 countries evaluated. The total time elapsed between the first interaction with the auditors and the receipt of the final audit report is 4 weeks, while in the most efficient countries, such as Mexico, it is 1 week and in Colombia it is 2 weeks (see graph 2).

The level of transparency of regulatory changes is another category of concern. In particular, it is important that future regulatory changes are communicated in advance and that the tax agency has adequate mechanisms and channels to collect frequent comments from taxpayers with the aim of improving regulations before their publication. In this regard, Peru is also in the tail.

In short, the correction of the deficiencies identified in terms of procedural efficiency, regulatory transparency and managerial stability is presented as an imperative requirement to mitigate uncertainty, restore the confidence of economic agents and create an environment conducive to the development and competitiveness of the Peruvian economy.

High turnover at Sunat

Isaac Foinquinos, chief economist at Ronin, warned that the high turnover in the Sunat leadership contributes to the growing tax uncertainty in the country.

Since 2024, the institution has had six heads, which is equivalent to an average of one head every four months. This level of instability far exceeds comparable countries such as Colombia, Chile and Mexico.

According to Foinquinos, the lack of continuity in management affects taxpayer confidence and reduces the institutional capacity to implement sustainable reforms.

Added to this is the negative perception reflected in the Ipsos survey for CADE 2025, which shows an approval of just 40% of Sunat’s performance, a figure that fell from 52% in 2023. In addition, 56% of the executives consulted consider that the entity hinders the development of companies.

Foinquinos maintained that reversing this situation is essential to regain confidence and improve tax efficiency.

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