The president assures that the decrease in homicides is due to the fact that four-axis strategy that was launched in October 2024 is giving results .
However, public safety experts warn that violence in the country has not decreased and that the decrease in the numbers is due to the fact that the homicides are not being reported as violent deaths and that there is a reclassification of crimessince the decrease coincides with the rise in crimes such as “forced disappearances” and “others that threaten life.”
“If the body is not there, there is no evidence of homicide, therefore there is no investigation folder, there is no more number in homicides, but there is one more number in the disappearance records,” explains Asael Nuche, researcher with the organization Causa en Común.
In the last year, while intentional homicides report a reduction, crimes such as manslaughter or disappearance show an increase.
“It draws our attention that between January and September 2025, 15,673 homicides and 26,926 disappearancesThat is to say, there was a decrease, according to figures from the Executive Secretary, in the number of victims of intentional homicide, but simultaneously an increase in the number of missing people,” adds Nuche.
He National Citizen Observatory He has also warned that while homicide goes down, other crimes go up.
“Intentional homicides show a sustained decrease, however, the classification of ‘Other crimes that threaten life’ must be made transparent,” he stated in a report on the occasion of Sheinbaum’s first year.
The category “Other crimes that threaten life” reports between January and September 10,844 victimslast year there were 10,616. However, for the last six years it has been increasing: in 2018, prior to the start of the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, this area reported 7,231 events, and it was increasing and at the end of the six-year term it reached 13,825.
For example, in Baja California this category reports 1,839 victims, while intentional homicides 1,195; in Mexico City 835 compared to 563 intentional deaths; in the State of Mexico 1,186 compared to 1,043 and Tabasco 699 compared to 453.
In matters of disappearances There is also an increase. From October 1, 2024 to September 30, 2025, 14,791 cases, which represents an increase of 17.2% compared to the same period the previous year when 12,620 disappearances were reported.
