The executive director of Public Health of the National Center for Epidemiology, Disease Prevention and Control (CDC) of the Ministry of Health, César Munayco, said that Peru is entering the transition stage of the pandemic due to the COVID-19 towards an endemic. In this regard, medical specialists and researchers agree that it is vital that genomic surveillance of the virus continue to be carried out in the future in order to adopt rapid and timely measures to contain possible outbreaks.
The third wave of the pandemic unleashed by the omicron variant has been the most violent of all due to the dizzying increase in infections, but it will also be shorter than the previous ones. It began at the beginning of the year reaching its highest peak of 6,250 cases per day in Arequipa on January 21. From the Ministry of Health it has been estimated that it will end at the end of the month and to demonstrate this, certain criteria must be met, such as that the new cases detected are less than or equal to the minimum registration of the second wave.
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According to the database of Yvan Tupacresearcher at Saint Paul’s Catholic University, the infection curve continues to decline and daily positivity has fallen to control levels; that is, it is below 5%. During the current week, between 1 and 2% of the applied tests were positive for the virusthese levels are lower than the lowest records of the second wave that occurred between November and December 2021which must be maintained for more than a month to consider that the third wave has passed.
alexis urdaydeputy director of the hospital Honorio Delgado Espinozamaintained that although the third wave is on its way to completion, this does not mean that the virus will disappear, since the COVID disease is here to stay.
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The road to endemicity is a long-winded process and it is estimated that it could be reached during 2023. During this process infections can be registered and for this reason it is necessary to continue carrying out the genomic sequencing of the virus to adopt public health strategiesin case a resurgence appears in people who did not receive the vaccine or do not have it completed with the three doses.
According to information from Single National Health Information Repository (Reunis), temporarily suspended by the Ministry of Health, as of March 1, 2022, of the target population at the national level: 32 million 781 thousand 250 people, those vaccinated with one dose add up to 27 million 736 thousand 618 inhabitants with coverage of the 84.61%, with two doses there are 24 million 513 thousand 346 Peruvians with a coverage of 73.78% and three doses 10 million 518 thousand 441 with a coverage of 32.09%.
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At the level of the target population of Arequipa, of 1 million 488 thousand 247 citizens, are immunized with a dose, 1 million 256 thousand 126 with a coverage of 84.4%; with two doses 1 million 133 thousand 234 inhabitants are vaccinated and the coverage is 76.15%, while three doses were applied to 478 thousand 342 people, with a coverage of 32.14%. We still have a population susceptible to contagion.
“Surveillance work continues, it is necessary to identify any possible outbreak to isolate it and contain its expansion”, said the doctor who agreed with César Munayco that the contagions that could be unleashed during a possible fourth wave, they could be sporadic, of short duration and with very few severe infections.
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Ines Monroy, head of the regional reference laboratory of the Regional Health Management, maintained that the disposition of the National Institute of Health (INS) is that not only continue taking samples to be processed with the intention of detecting, in a timely manner, the possible appearance of Omicron sublineages and mutations, but also from other types of viruses that can cause respiratory complications, taking into account the proximity of the cold season during the autumn and winter seasons.
“The surveillance and laboratory diagnosis plan is not going to stop”, said the head biologist of the laboratory that aims to be transformed to change the course of diagnosis in Arequipa, carrying out research from the analysis of the molecular biologynot only from COVIDbut also other diseases to provide an immediate response to public health problems that may arise.
