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November 1, 2025
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The dollar continues to decline amid signs against its reference rate in the informal market

The dollar continues to decline amid signs against its reference rate in the informal market

The declines in the price of dollar and the euro in the Cuban informal market extended this Friday, when the price of buying and selling currency The American currency is quoted at 470 pesos (CUP) per unit, and the European currency at 430.

After several days of daily increase until it touched the barrier of 500 CUP, the dollar has fallen for its fifth consecutive date, amid suspicions regarding the methods by which the real value of currencies is calculated for operations in the informal market of the island.

August had marked a milestone for the price of this currency through the platform published by the digital medium The Touch, upon reaching 400 CUP per unitand since then an accelerated spiral was unleashed that some view with suspicion.

At the beginning of October it had already climbed to 450 CUP, and it did not take long to approach a limit that some consider unjustified.

Rate in question

During the last few days, social networks have hosted a type of campaign, presumably promoted by businessmen from the island’s private sector, who feel harmed by the, until recently, upward movements of the dollar, and at par, the rest of the currencies.

The call has been not to buy dollars using the rate established by El Toque as a measure, while larger purchase and sale operations are promoted on social networks and other channels for values ​​lower than those marked by the aforementioned digital portal.

Those responsible for the popular reference platform defend that these values ​​continue to be calculated by means of an average between the supply and demand advertisements that are published in the digital environment.

The dollar continues to rise in Cuba and aims for 500 pesos in “an extreme scenario,” according to analysts

MLC in equilibrium

Another trend, but marked by stability, maintains the price of the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC), which is exchanged at 200 CUP per unit.

Many consider that this currency, whose value is limited only to the increasingly dwindling chain of establishments created on the island for indirect capital raising, has its days numbered.

Its depreciation has been accompanied by the scarcity of products offered in stores that continue to operate with this currency, and which contrasts with a greater assortment of the growing number of stores that have begun to operate directly with other foreign currencies.

Waiting for the miracle

The swings in the price of currencies in the Cuban informal market are part of the recurring landscape that illustrates the deep and prolonged economic crisis that the island is experiencing.

The lack of supply of basic products through state channels has shifted consumption towards the private sector, which produced inflation far from the levels desired by the Government, which has opted for dollarization in a risky strategy that still does not cushion the impact of the crisis.

From dollarization to fiscal stabilization: priorities for an economy that fails to grow

In the midst of this panorama, expectations remain regarding the announced state intervention in the exchange market.

During the last session of the National Assembly of People’s Power (ANNP), held in the middle of the year, Prime Minister Manuel Marrero explained that this step should be taken during the second half of 2025.

With just over two months until that deadline expires, there is no clarity on when or how it could be implemented.



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