He partial government shutdown of the United States caused the authorities to suspend the publication of official GDP data this Thursday, a new setback for policy makers, financial institutions and markets that have to continue operating blindly.
Without going any further, on Wednesday the Federal Reserve (Fed, central bank) announced a quarter point rate cut despite lacking key information. The shutdown, which entered its 30th day on Thursday, has left the world’s largest economy without data on employment, trade or retail sales.
Republicans and Democrats appear to be at an impasse in negotiations to reach a federal government funding deal. Both parties blame each other for the situation, with no solution in sight.
In the absence of official data on gross domestic product (GDP), Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal published the markets’ expectation: that GDP grew 2.8% year-on-year in the third quarter of the year.
If this forecast is confirmed, it would mean a setback compared to the 3.8% growth of the second quarter.
Experts warn of a reduction in investment and hiring: “This is the time of year when most organizations are finalizing their budgets for 2026“says Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.
The Fed announced the second quarter-point rate cut of 2025 on Wednesday, in an attempt to stimulate the labor market and facilitate access to credit. “We continue to face risks,” said the Fed chairman, Jerome Powell.
