Analysts agree that these elections are a kind of covert referendum on the mandate of Milei, who in December will complete two years in power, that is, half of his mandate.
Argentina will hold legislative elections this Sunday the 26th that are presented as a plebiscite on the first two years of the far-right Government of Javier Milei, in a context of strong political confrontation between the ruling party of La Libertad Avanza (LLA) and Peronism.
The 24 electoral districts of Argentina, which correspond to 23 provinces plus the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (CABA), will open the polls this October 26 to elect half of the Chamber of Deputies (257 seats) and a third of the Senate (72) through a single paper ballot, a system that the majority has never used before.
With currently 37 seats in the lower house, LLA aspires to grow thanks to the alliance with Propuesta Repúblicana (PRO), the conservative party of former president Mauricio Macri, and obtain a third of Parliament, that is, 86 seats.
If achieved, the Milei Government would prevent presidential decrees from being vetoed, could stop impeachment initiatives and would promote its own bills with the support of new allies.
Peronism, for its part, will seek to revalidate 47% of its deputies, while other forces such as the Radical Civic Union (UCR) and provincial groups are going to this election with the aim of renewing almost all of their legislative representation.
In the Senate, the far-right LLA will only add seats because, unlike previous elections, it is the first time that it has led lists of candidates for the upper house, while Peronism aims to safeguard the 44% of the senators it has.
Milei will have to negotiate “yes or yes”
“If all the forecasts are accurate (…), even with the best possible result, the Government would not have a third of the Lower House,” Lara Goyburu, director of the political consulting firm Management & Fit, told EFE.
He added that Milei, “yes or yes, is going to have to negotiate with other actors, whether inside or outside Congress. And during this year he has not shown any sign of dialogue or consensus.
For Peronism, a victory would allow it to position itself as the main force in the opposition to Milei’s ultra government, which would be a boost for that historic political movement after the discredit of the Government of Alberto Fernández (2019-2023) and, in addition, would open the process of defining a unity candidate for the 2027 presidential elections.
Shila Vilker, director of Trespuntozero, explained to EFE that in the demoscopy studies carried out by her consulting firm “Peronism is beginning to transform into an instrument to punish Milei.”
Under this scenario, it could be expected that the two main political movements would be declared winners: LLA would celebrate a significant growth in legislators, while Peronism would be in a position to celebrate having obtained the largest number of votes in the country.
indirect plebiscite
Analysts consulted by EFE agree that these elections are a kind of covert referendum on the mandate of Milei, who in December will complete two years in power, that is, half of his mandate.
In fact, this is what the ruling party proposed in its campaign, marked by the unconditional support of the United States for Milei, both with messages of explicit support and in the form of economic and financial agreements.
The Argentine president became actively involved in the LLA events in the midst of a financial earthquake due to the shortage of foreign exchange reserves and pressure on a peso that the market considers overvalued, an anchor that the Executive defends as part of its disinflation strategy.
In parallel, recent corruption scandals have put people in the presidential environment in the spotlight, such as his sister Karina, general secretary of the Presidency and right hand of the president, who have called into question the slogan with which they came to power: confront the political “caste.”
The Argentine Andrés Malamud, principal researcher at the Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon, told EFE that the notion of “caste” used by Milei “has become worn out.”
“The Government went from anti-establishment (against those at the top) to anti-Kirchnerist (against those in front),” he added.
Likewise, since the beginning of 2025, the Argentine Government has been facing two scandals harmful to its public image: Milei promoted the $Libra cryptocurrency in February, which led to a scam for multiple investors after the abrupt drop in its value; and an investigation into alleged bribery in the purchase of medicines through the National Disability Agency.
In recent weeks, LLA also suffered the fall of its main candidate in Buenos Aires, José Luis Espert, after having been denounced for links to Federico Machado, deported to the United States for drug trafficking.
In statements to EFE, former ambassador and political analyst Jorge Asís defined what is at stake on Sunday in Argentina: «Milei will hold a plebiscite on Sunday; “It had technical errors and moral catastrophes.”
Another argument that threatens Milei’s popularity is the economy: activity is stagnant, formal employment is not picking up, salaries have not recovered from the high inflation left by the end of the previous Government, and the fiscal adjustment, which Milei promised to target against “caste”, has so far fallen on health and education.
Even so, it is not ruled out that the number of La Libertad Avanza legislators will grow.
With information from the EFE agency
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