The Mexican economy presented growth slightly higher than that estimated for August, according to information released by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
In August, figures revealed that the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE), responsible for monthly monitoring the performance of the Mexican economy, registered an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous month.
This data was better than that previously projected by Inegi – a day before – through the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE), where a growth of just 0.1 percent was estimated.
In this way, the Mexican economy had its second best growth so far in 2025, only below February when the expansion was 0.8% monthly.
So far this year, the Mexican economy has shown signs of cooling. Although a recession that was expected in the first months of the year has been ruled out, economic activity remains weak.
“Although today’s surprise is welcome, recent evolution and the outlook for the determinants of economic growth allow us to anticipate that it will remain weak for the rest of the year, in a context of very high uncertainty,” stated Banamex analysts.
In this panorama, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) predicts that the economy will grow this year, in a range of 0.5 and 1.5 percent.
The market consensus is at the lower end of the official projection. The latest edition of the Citi Survey shows an average rate of 0.5% for this year, with estimates ranging from a contraction of 0.1% (from Scotiabank and Valmex) to a growth of 0.8% (Bankaool).
Recovery in two sectors
The Inegi report showed that, by economic sectors, two of them managed to recover in the month, highlighting the primary sector with a double-digit expansion.
After falling 3.2% monthly in July, activities that focus on agriculture, fishing, livestock and similar reported an expansion of 14.5% in monthly comparison.
For their part, tertiary activities – where services are located – also recovered in August, although to a lesser extent. They presented a monthly growth of 0.5% after falling 0.4 percent in July.
“They recovered from the decline in July, seeing their largest monthly increase in four readings. The rebound in commerce, transportation, recreation, and hotels and restaurants stood out, in line with the improvement in consumer confidence and despite the fact that the abnormal rains did not subside,” said Alejandro Saldaña, chief economist of Ve por Más (BX+).
In this sector, the greatest growth was observed in retail trade, which had an expansion of 1.8% monthly, while at the other extreme, business support services and waste management contracted 1.4 percent.
Industries fall for the third month
In the case of secondary activities, which include industries, they reported their third consecutive month of falls. In August, its contraction was 0.3 percent.
Within this category, construction was the industry that fell the most, with a decline of 2.2% compared to July, while mining contracted 0.7 percent.
“The outlook for the remainder of the year confirms an uneven performance between Mexico’s industrial and service sectors, with the former still in contraction and the latter showing moderate resilience. The industrial sector is likely to remain under pressure until the end of the year, weighed down by persistent weakness in construction and manufacturing, the slower execution of public works and the moderation of exports to the United States,” explained Andrés Abadía, chief economist for Latin America at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Annual stagnation
Although in annual comparison the IGAE result was also better than expected, it showed stagnation in August, with a rate of 0.0 percent. Inegi’s estimate is that there will be a contraction of 0.6 percent.
The stagnation comes after a 1.2% drop in the month of July.
“Going forward, challenges persist for the Mexican economy, conditioned by the weak performance of construction and the fragility of manufacturing industries. The above, coupled with the climate of uncertainty derived from tariff policies and disruptions that may be generated in supply chains, as well as the internal political-economic environment, factors that could reduce growth for the quarter,” Monex mentioned in your analysis.
