A study by the Mobility and Social Development Institute (IMDS) shows that, of the 15.5 million young people aged 7 to 16 who, in December 2012, received Bolsa Família as dependents, 10.3 million (or 66.5% of them) managed to leave the program in the following 12 years, until 2024, indicating improved socioeconomic advancement. 
Last year, 5.2 million (33.5%) of young people continued to receive resources from the program, highlighting, according to the survey, the persistence of poverty conditions and the complexity of social mobility mechanisms in Brazil.
According to IMDS, the results reinforce the importance of income transfer for the immediate alleviation of poverty, as well as the need for complementary policies in education, health and job creation to break the cycle of social vulnerability.
“The study shows that Bolsa Família is crucial to guarantee minimum survival conditions, but it also reveals that, alone, it is not enough to promote broad and sustained mobility, as it is not designed for this. It is necessary to integrate transfer policies with strategies that strengthen the formation of human capital and the productive insertion of young people”, highlighted the president of IMDC, Paulo Tafner.
For the president of the institute, the path for the program’s beneficiaries to leave poverty goes through the country’s macroeconomic environment, parents’ education and infrastructure at the municipal level. “Quality education and sanitation in the municipality have historically been associated with breaking out of the poverty trap.”
Single Registration
The study also highlights that, of the 15.5 million young people analyzed, 7.6 million have completely disconnected from the social protection network and left, by 2024, including the Single Registry for Social Programs (CadÚnico) – socioeconomic identification and characterization system that brings together detailed information on low-income families throughout the national territory – suggesting more significant trajectories of socioeconomic ascension.
The analysis revealed that the withdrawal from the Cadastro Único was strongly associated with the initial conditions of families in 2012. Families with more educated guardians and with slightly higher incomes were more likely to leave, suggesting upward trajectories. The low level of education of young people, in turn, increased the chances of remaining on the register for the following 12 years.
Men were more likely than women to be disconnected from the registry and black and mixed-race young people were more likely to remain in the social protection network.
Regional inequalities and profile of beneficiaries
The study identified a marked regional difference in the patterns of dismissal from Bolsa Família and CadÚnico. While the South, Southeast and Central-West regions showed higher rates of exit from the program and registration, the municipalities in the Northeast and part of the Legal Amazon registered greater permanence in CadÚnico and Bolsa Família, reflecting, according to the survey, historical vulnerabilities.
The Northeast, despite concentrating the majority of beneficiaries in 2012, maintained in 2024 a higher proportion of children and young people still linked to the Single Registry. In the South and Southeast, the higher incidence of layoffs, according to the study, indicates a greater likelihood of mobility, even though pockets of vulnerability coexist in metropolitan and rural areas. The Central-West presents an intermediate picture, with high exit rates in agricultural frontier areas and more economically dynamic municipalities.
The full study can be seen here.
