The delinquency rate of the bank, which Pablo Elek has directed since May 15, has been increasing in recent months, driven by the composition and dynamism of its mortgage loan portfolio, according to figures from the National Banking and Securities Commission (CNBV).
“What is driving defaults, particularly in that institution, has more to do with its exposure to the real estate sector, given that 46.8% of its portfolio is there,” Alik García, deputy director of analysis at Valmex Casa de Bolsa, said in an interview.
The specialist highlights that there is weak performance in the real estate sector, especially in the residential sector, which, combined with high interest rates, is causing some clients to stop paying their loans.
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) maintained high interest rates throughout 2023 due to the increase in inflation. The reference was taken to historical highs of 11.25% and since 2024 it has been adjusted downwards; last September the central bank reduced it to 7.5% .
The bank’s high exposure to real estate loans could continue to affect this indicator in the coming months.
“It has to do with a business strategy. They want to be more focused on that particular segment and that also leads to levels of delinquency that are noticeably higher than the rest of the institutions,” García added.
Now that Banxico is in a bearish cycle, Valmex points out that this may reduce the rates at which banks lend, although delinquencies will persist, especially in mortgage loans.
On the other hand, banks like BBVA and Banorte, which have a strong dependence on government loans, register lower delinquency rates than their peers, because this type of financing has a zero default rate, which helps them compensate for the default on other loans.
This year, credit to governments contracted, given the entry of Claudia Sheinbaum’s government and its strategy to reduce its fiscal deficit.
“In government loans, particularly within the G7, we have seen a drop in the government credit portfolio of almost 11% from December to date,” García highlighted.
