In the final stretch of the current seasona tropical disturbance is beginning to generate the attention of specialists due to its potential to become an intense hurricane with the possibility of developing in the Caribbean Sea.
José Rubiera, a prestigious Cuban meteorologist, suggested this Sunday that the advance of the 98L disturbance through the waters of the eastern Caribbean should be observed “very carefully” due to its possibilities of development, which would make it a “dangerous” phenomenon.
The specialist highlighted the translation speed with which this disturbance moves over the arc of the Lesser Antilles, and the forecasts on its possible trajectory, according to the application of several forecast models.
The United States National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a communication this Monday that raises to 80% the probability that this disturbance will become a hurricane during the next seven days.
8am EDT Oct 20 — We continue to monitor a tropical wave (#AL98) in the eastern Caribbean which has a high chance (80% ) of tropical cyclone development over the next few days, as it slows down & moves into the central Caribbean.
Latest at https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/VozOI3X3S0
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 20, 2025
According to the conditions in the central and especially the western Caribbean, marked by “oceanic heat, high relative humidity and low vertical wind shear”, there is a high probability of cyclonic development, the expert said.
Regarding the possible route, the models suggest that, as the days go by, the forecasts indicate an uncertain course, decreasing the speed of travel and increasing the possibility of parking in the western Caribbean, which would lead to an “explosive development,” according to the expert.
The dispersion in the models, according to Rubiera, is given by the air currents from the surface levels of the atmosphere, responsible for its movement.
“Another of the factors that can divert its course towards the north are troughs, which can make it recurve,” said the meteorologist.
In that sense, he drew attention to the movements of three anticyclones and a trough over the region, which prevents us from having a more exact notion at this time of an outcome when it advances through the Caribbean with the category of tropical cyclone.
“That is why we must maintain close monitoring of the development of this phenomenon in the coming days,” Rubiera highlighted, alluding to the potential, once it becomes a hurricane, it could affect Cuban territory in some way.
Upside odds
The NHC today updated the development forecasts for tropical disturbance 98L, assigning it a probability of cyclonic development of 50% in the next 48 hours, which reaches 80% in the extended seven-day forecast.
In its estimates, the scientific institution indicates that it will maintain a westward course through the Caribbean Sea in the next few hours, at a rate of between 15 and 20 miles per hour, concentrating a large area of rain and thunderstorms.
Another active hurricane season is approaching in the North Atlantic and the Caribbean
If it becomes a tropical storm, the phenomenon will take the name Melissa, according to the official list for the phenomena of its type recorded in 2025.
Thus, it would become number 13 that takes place in the current season, which will conclude on November 30.
Specialists from the Cuban Institute of Meteorology (Insmet) considered that the 2025 cyclonic season would be active in the North Atlantic region, based on the possible formation of up to 15 atmospheric phenomena of this type, with eight reaching hurricane status.
The one corresponding to last year closed with 18 tropical storms, of which 11 became hurricanes, as their sustained winds exceeded 119 kilometers per hour.
