According to the latest available forecasts, the growth of Colombia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2025 is within a moderate range, between 2.4% and 2.8%with a convergence towards figures between 2.6% and 2.7%. This outlook reflects an expectation of controlled economic expansion, in a context marked by internal challenges such as inflation, fiscal policy and the uncertain global environment.
The World Bank estimates growth of 2.4%, a figure that is at the lower end of projections. This suggests a cautious view of the country’s ability to maintain investment levels, take advantage of external demand or achieve an adequate balance between public spending and tax revenue.
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For its part, Anif projects a growth of 2.8%, which denotes a somewhat optimistic scenario regarding the dynamism of domestic demandprivate investment and the government’s ability to implement favorable policies.
Entities such as Fedesarrollo—through the consensus of analysts and their economic reports—estimate a growth of 2.6%a figure that aligns with many other predictions and could be interpreted as the “center of gravity” of expectations.
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Similar in their vision are Corficolombiana, which also estimates 2.6%, and Banco de Bogotá, with a projected 2.7%, who trust in an economic performance slightly above average. For its part, Itaú estimates 2.7%, which indicates an expectation of somewhat more robust growth if favorable conditions are achieved in foreign trade.investment rate and control of risk factors.
This essential consensus Among analysts, it indicates that Colombia could close 2025 with an average growth of around 2.6%-2.7%, which would point to a stable but contained expansion.. In this scenario, the country must face structural challenges such as the need to adjust public finances, contain inflation and maintain competitiveness in key sectors such as industry, commerce and commodity exports.
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Beyond the pace of growth, the differences between the projections suggest risk variables that could tilt the result toward the lower or upper end of the range. For example, a greater than expected weakness in external demand, shocks in the price of oil derivativesor fiscal difficulties could lead to an expansion closer to 2.4%. In contrast, undertaking successful structural reforms, improving private investment or stimulating domestic demand could push growth towards 2.8%.
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In sum, although the estimates regarding 2025 do not differ drastically between the entities, the consensus leans towards moderate but positive growth, in a range that could be considered sustainable economic performance in the face of the challenges that Colombia faces. Coupled with it, The margin of error between estimates invites us to carefully observe how macroeconomic indicators evolvepublic policy decisions and the international environment during the year.
VALENTINA DELGADILLO ABELLO
Portfolio Journalist
