Havana/US sanctions weigh down the Cuban economy, but Cuba could do a lot to get out of the deep crisis in which it is mired, eight of the most renowned economists independent of this country.
The sanctions, which the Cuban Government considers the “main cause” of the deep crisis of the Island, are back in the news due to the upcoming debate and vote in the UN General Assembly of the resolution that Havana presents annually to demand its withdrawal.
However, the experts consulted believe that there are other factors of at least equal weight and recommend that Havana – beyond this diplomatic battle – focus on the areas on which it can influence, instead of lamenting the effects of US sanctions, which none of them questions.
The situation on the Island is critical. To the deep economic crisis, which has lasted five years, we must add the energy, food, health, productive, agricultural, banking, financial and monetary crisis.
To the deep economic crisis, which has lasted five years, we must add the energy, food, health, productive, agricultural, banking, financial and monetary crisis.
“The blockade affects us, but it does not depend on the will of the Government. It does depend on them to end hypercentralized planning and give more autonomy to all existing forms of property, reduce bureaucracy and, finally, not fear the market,” observes Omar Everleny Pérez, professor at the University of Havana.
The task is not easy, as explained by City University of New York professor Tamarys Bahamonde, who highlights that the problems go beyond the structural. “The crisis is systemic and all the problems are connected to each other. It is like a spider web, one cannot be faced without touching all the others,” he explains.
Ricardo Torres, a researcher at the American University of Washington, assures that “even in the midst of sanctions, there is much that can be done,” such as encouraging investment, protecting private property, building a stable legal framework, promoting competition and financing international organizations. “The current model must be dismantled, but that is what they do not want,” he points out.
Mauricio de Miranda, professor at the Pontificia Universidad Javeriana in Cali (Colombia), does not hesitate to start his list of reforms with the political sphere: he calls for “democratization” and inclusion of Cubans outside the island, due to their possibility of contributing ideas, human capital and financial resources.
Then he jumps to the economic, calling for an end to the “centralized administration” – to “free up the productive forces” – with the GAESA business conglomerate (in the hands of the military) and with the limitations in the agricultural and foreign sectors. In the legal field, it calls for equality for all economic actors and predictability.
Economist Pedro Monreal also begins with politics, who considers that the first step would be to eliminate from the 2019 Constitution “the planned direction of the economy”, characterized in the text as “a central component of the system of direction of economic and social development.”
Economist Pedro Monreal considers that the first step would be to eliminate “the planned direction of the economy” from the 2019 Constitution.
He considers that Cuba is in the type of crisis from which a country cannot recover from “within the framework of the system”, but rather has to be overcome with substantive reforms. “The Cuban Government does not seem willing to make such radical changes,” he says.
The Cuban-American economist Carlos Martínez focuses on the measures that Havana could take to stop “hindering” the revitalization of certain areas, from the liberalization of the agricultural sector (where most of the land is state property) to the opening to “competition” of sectors now dominated by state monopolies, such as telecommunications or energy.
Pavel Vidal, also a professor at the Pontificia Universidad Javeriana de Cali, believes that the Cuban Government “has to take at least some steps to convince that it is going to apply a profound reform of this economic model that is not credible.” “These are things that have to be done and until they are done, not even the allies themselves are really going to put abundant resources into the Cuban economy,” he argues.
“What Cuba has done historically is look for international allies. But that strategy is no longer working due to a serious issue of loss of credibility, even among historical allies: the Russians, the Chinese,… they understand better than anyone the problems of the Cuban economic model and the need to reform,” says Vidal.
Pavel Vidal believes that the Cuban Government “has to take at least some steps to convince that it is going to apply a profound reform of this economic model that is not credible.”
Miguel Alejandro Hayes, coordinator of the Caribbean Basin Research Institute, considers that Cuba – with the worst per capita income in Latin America, “a paralyzed business system” and infrastructure investment needs that he estimates at 60 billion dollars (51.26 billion euros) – can no longer aspire to an economic recovery based on minor reforms.
“The only economic solution that the Cuban Government has to reverse the current collapse, a more appropriate term than crisis, is to create an economic and political transition that allows the design and implementation of a reconstruction plan for Cuba,” he emphasizes.
