The rating agency HR Ratings highlighted in a report this year that the implementation of new technology in the banking sector is one of the most relevant aspects for its growth, since it allows promoting an environment of greater competition and cost optimization.
“I think Banamex can increase [el valor] significantly in the next two or three years,” says Álvaro Vértiz, private analyst and country head of DGA Group.
For Alik García, deputy director of stock market analysis at Valmex Casa de Bolsa, the offers presented by both Fernando Chico Pardo and Germán Larrea for Banamex, set a precedent in the reference price for a subsequent public offering in the stock market.
“Depending on the management that Banamex has in the coming quarters, regarding its public offer, it will depend on whether the bank achieves a better valuation than the ones it is presenting at the moment,” explains García.
Although the shareholders of Grupo México did not seem to like the idea of acquiring the bank, Álvaro Vértiz considers that there is a possibility that Larrea will insist on acquiring the bank because Banamex has a good participation in the acquisition, placement of consumer credit and payroll products.
Both experts do not rule out that Larrea will make a new offer or release a new statement in the coming days, arguing the reasons why his proposal is beneficial for the bank.
“There is nothing that forces Grupo México not to present a new offer; it can present as many offers as Grupo México considers and the decision is up to Citi, its shareholders and the Board of Directors,” García highlights.
Valmex highlights that although there are conditions for Banamex to improve its indicators, such as the delinquency rate or the credit portfolio, the bank is not exempt from risks that affect its future valuation.
“There will always be risk factors that come directly from the business’s own operation or external factors such as the pace of growth of economic activity and the level of interest rates,” García highlighted.
Even with all the analyzes and projections, the fate of Banamex is a developing story. Between possible offers from Larrea, internal adjustments and preparation for an IPO that could redefine its value, the next few months will be decisive. For analysts and markets, the question is not whether there will be a buyer, but when and under what conditions the next chapter of the sale of the National Bank of Mexico will be written.
